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Mentor Graphics (NASDAQ:MENT)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call

November 17, 2011 5:00 pm ET

Executives

Walden C. Rhines - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Gregory K. Hinckley - President, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Executive Director

Analysts

Paul B. Thomas - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Saket Kalia - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Richard Valera - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

Thomas Diffely - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Jay Vleeschhouwer - Griffin Securities, Inc., Research Division

Gregory K. Hinckley

[Audio Gap]

an average of $1.41 this quarter compared to $1.32 last year. Parenthetically, recent events in Europe that are adverse to the euro are very favorable to the expenses that are embedded in our fourth quarter guidance. Headcount was flat to last year.

All leading indicators were up strongly as we close the quarter. Support declines dropped and consulting bookings doubled. New customers were up 40% worldwide and more than double in North America. Every contract renewals were up 40% and base business -- turns business, in other words, business that books and bills on the same quarter that was less than $1 million was up 15%.

Finally, with our record book-to-bill for a third quarter, we entered the fourth quarter finding ourselves with 85% of our fourth quarter's revenue guidance already in hand in the form of maintenance and service contracts, expiring contracts with original value and a backlog.

During the quarter, we repurchased $10 million of stock at an average price of $10.79. Year-to-date, we have purchased $70 million of stock of an authorization of $150 million.

Cash flow from operations were $10 million in the quarter. We made no acquisitions this quarter and for all intents and purposes, none this year.

During the quarter, we exchanged our Catapult C High-Level Synthesis product, which last year had revenue of approximately $10 million for an equity interest in Calypto, an independent electronic system-level design company.

Now for more financial detail. Bookings were up 20%, 15% for product and doubling for both consulting and training. Design-to-Silicon, as we have been predicting all year long was very strong, up 50% to an all-time record high and a record high that was 25% higher than the previous record for our Design-to-Silicon business.

As Wally mentioned last quarter, Mentor benefits as our fast technology customers migrate to new nodes and then renew resolution enhancement contracts. As expected, our other product lines declined as we have been predicting for the second half of this year.

Remember, Scalable Verification and New & Emerging more than doubled in the third quarter of last year, and Integrated System Designs was up 50% in the third quarter of last year. This quarter, Integrated Systems Design and Scalable Verification were down 15%, and New & Emerging down 5%.

Geographically, North America and Pac Rim were up -- were strong, up 15%, an absolutely astounding 165% respectfully. Recall most of the foundry fab business is centered in the Pac Rim. Europe and Japan were weak, down 30% and 45%. As an aside, I'll mention I expect Europe to pace the growth of the company in the fourth quarter.

Bookings were 80% term, 15% perpetual and 5% subscription, essentially the same as last year. Top 10 deals were 65% of bookings, identical to last year and common to what we experience in a strong quarter. Weighted average growth in annualized run rate of our largest contract renewals was, in Wally's vocabulary, a "robust" 40%, well up from the 10% we reported last year.

Average deal length was 3.2 years compared to 3.1 last year. Revenue mix by geography was 45% North America, 25% Europe, 10% Japan and 20% Pac Rim. Support revenue was up 4% with reinstatements again soft, offset in part by a decline -- a drop in declines. Currency, principally the yen, was favorable to revenue by about $3.5 million, a tailwind we expect to continue through the fourth quarter.

Gross margin, non-GAAP, was 84.7%, up 1.2% from last year, which was caused in part by the effect of a stronger yen and in part by a higher level of software in the revenue mix. OpEx, non-GAAP, was 70.5% of revenues compared to 69.7% last year. Currency accounted much for this variance was unfavorable to operating expense by $3.3 million.

Other income and expense, non-GAAP, was a $3 million expense, essentially interest expense net of interest income. Special charges were $1.2 million and were all related to cost reduction initiatives. Our non-GAAP tax provision remained at 17%.

And now, some comments on the balance sheet. Cash and equivalents decreased $11 million to $112 million at quarter end. The overall decrease in cash was primarily due to the repurchase of the company's common stock. Operating cash flow for the third quarter was a $10 million inflow compared to an $8 million outflow last year. The increase of inflows was primarily due to the increase in cash collections over the third quarter of last year.

Trade accounts receivable was $114 million, up $23 million sequentially. Short-term unbilled receivables were $177 million, down $8 million sequentially. The increase in trade accounts receivable and the decrease in unbilled receivables is due to increased invoicing activity for some of our larger accounts.

Trade days sales outstanding were 41 days, an increase of 3 days from last quarter and 2 days since last year. Total days sales outstanding were 105 days, a decrease of 12 days from last quarter and 8 days from last year. The quality of receivables remains excellent with no receivables net of reserves greater than 60 days outstanding.

Factored receivables were $17 million in the third quarter compared to $1 million in the second quarter of this year and $12 million in the third quarter of last year.

Capital expenditures were $8 million for the third quarter compared to $10 million last quarter and $18 million last year. Depreciation and amortization of property plant equipment was $8 million for this third quarter, same as the previous sequential quarter and last year.

Now guidance. For the fourth quarter, we are forecasting revenues of approximately $316 million, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50. For the full year, January 31, 2012, we are forecasting revenue of $1,010,000,000, and an increase in our non-GAAP earnings per share to $1.05 from our prior guidance of $1.03. Non-GAAP property income will be approximately 16% of revenue for the year, well up from the 11.9% reported last year. We are pleased with our progress in achieving improved quarterly linearity of the business. Evidence of this is in fiscal 2012. Our fourth quarter non-GAAP guidance of $0.50 represents 48% of full year earnings per share, by no means linear, but certainly an improvement over last year when the fourth quarter was almost 70% of total earnings per share.

We expect to exit the fourth quarter with a book-to-bill greater than $1.0 million for the quarter and for the entire year. So while not yet ready to forecast next year, we are confident we will have good news to announce.

Wally?

Walden C. Rhines

Thanks, Greg. Well, it was a record Q3 for Mentor driven heavily by the increasing software sales required for adoption of 28- and 20-nanometer technology. General strength in EDA markets, growth in demand in new markets like automotive and embedded systems and good cost controls are moving Mentor to its fourth consecutive year of 50% or greater growth in non-GAAP earnings -- I'm sorry, in third year of non-GAAP earnings with a record revenues of over $1 billion.

During my time at Mentor Graphics, business has never been stronger and with the accelerating momentum in businesses like emulation, embedded software, automotive and mechanical analysis, we are very optimistic about the growth prospects ahead.

Now let's take some questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Paul Thomas, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Paul B. Thomas - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Maybe starting off with your industry perspective. In spite of the guidance and results, has there been any change in tone from your customers? And it does seem like design activity slowed a little bit in the last month. And I just want to understand if you're hearing any of that commentary from your customers? Or has it really been strength through the end of the year?

Walden C. Rhines

Yes, so if you look at the largest semiconductor companies, more than half of them in their most recent earnings update actually indicated growth in the coming quarters and more than half actually raised their guidance for the next year. So that macro is positive. The uncertainty we hear comes mostly from the issue of flooding in Thailand and uncertainty over Europe but as Greg indicated, Europe will be outstanding for Mentor in fourth quarter. So in general, it's a positive business climate and we see no weakening, in fact, some strengthening as we gone through the year.

Paul B. Thomas - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Okay. And then looking at emulation, could you comment a little bit about the strength of that in the quarter and the coming quarter? And whether or not you've seen any change in the competitive environment there?

Walden C. Rhines

Yes. And that's one where we have, we have changed the competitive environment. So we are now winning essentially all of the benchmarks. We're expecting that in the second half of this year, our emulation business will grow about 50% compared to last year. So the things that are changing the general environment have been more and more people moving to things beyond in circuit emulation to things like embedded software development and like test bench acceleration and other things. And so, it has really opened up the market for us, and we're really excited about Veloce and how well it's doing.

Operator

And now to the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities.

Jay Vleeschhouwer - Griffin Securities, Inc., Research Division

Actually I'd like to start with a couple of financial or accounting clarifications. First, could you talk about the ongoing accounting treatment of the Catapult transaction? The footnote in your release refers to a gain in the quarter. Is that representative of future such gains now that you have a controlling stake in the company? Secondly in terms of your segment performance, could you talk about what appears to have been a re-class of a couple of your segments, for example a year ago, your Design-to-Silicon segment was shown at 30% of your bookings. Now you show that a year ago was 45% of your bookings, so you seem to have shifted about 15 points of bookings from one segment to another. So if you could clarify that, please?

Gregory K. Hinckley

Let me deal, Jay, with the -- what our Catapult C/Calypto transaction. During the quarter, I mentioned we exchanged our interest in Catapult C which was, has been doing about $10 million of revenue a year for -- and when we merged that to Calypto, and we are now a majority shareholder in the combined company. What you see in the notes are a -- it's a one-time event. Our minority interest previously in Calypto was marked to fair value, resulting in a one-time gain as required in the accounting rules when moving from a noncontrolling to a controlling interest. So it is complex. The good news is it was not included in our -- we backed it out of our non-GAAP results. So the $0.25 that we reported is the non-GAAP results, does not include the accounting effects that came from, in fact, Calypto and going forward, we will consolidate Calypto into our financials. And so we will -- going forward, record 100% of the revenue and 100% of the expenses in our financial statements. Wally?

Walden C. Rhines

And on the second question, I believe that was the change in design for test, which we have in New & Emerging, our New & Emerging products and we decided that design for test has finally emerged. And so it's such a big business for us now and we're such a large share, we thought it made sense to roll it into Design-to-Silicon. That's why the year-to-year percent of total revenue changed.

Jay Vleeschhouwer - Griffin Securities, Inc., Research Division

Okay. Let me turn to a couple of more interesting market or technology questions. If we look back 3 years to the second half of fiscal '09, as a basis of comparison for renewals activity for Calibre for this year, from the third quarter of fiscal '09 to the fourth quarter of fiscal '09, there was about a $50 million sequential increase in your DTS bookings. Given the strength that you've just had at Calibre in the October quarter, do you think you can replicate the kind of sequential bookings increase you had 3 years ago in the second half of the year.

Walden C. Rhines

We're going to have a very strong fourth quarter in Design-to-Silicon, and we're not prepared to quantify how strong that product line will be in the fourth quarter. We're still in negotiations for important contracts, but it will be a big fourth quarter for that product line.

Jay Vleeschhouwer - Griffin Securities, Inc., Research Division

Okay, and then lastly for Wally. Besides the adoption of new tools such as Calibre and RIT [ph] and so forth for 20-nanometer, let me ask a broader question, particularly given all your traveling around and meeting with customers. Could you comment on new methodologies for advanced design? And what I mean is you listen to Intel, for example, at DAC. They speak about design repeatability, Samsung speaks of something they call design margin management, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, one of your partners, talks about design-enabled methodologies and so forth. Is this having new tools and new capacities sufficient for what your customers are speaking of methodologically? Or is there something more unique to do in the terms of support services or anything else?

Walden C. Rhines

Well it's a very good observation. Moving forward, especially at the -- at 20-nanometer node, there are bunch of new things that have to be supported that affects the new methodology. In general, they will be built into existing tools, all sorts of capabilities rattled off the cover; the place and route and timing, the need to do double pattering and the statistical analysis, as you know. But the things that really that drive revenue growth are things in the total flow where you add a whole new requirement or you change the methodology drastically. And there are really a number of those. The biggest one impacting us is designed for reliability, where people are now actually designing to a set of rule [ph] that is put out by TSMC and that supports only Calibre PERC for things like electromigration and electrostatic discharge and other things like that. And the other big change, one of the companies you mentioned is officially moving forward to try to make design a functional plan of record, be stated in a SystemC format so that in fact, they go to ESL synthesis for their designs. And when they go back to make a change, they go back to that source. That's a fundamental change that will drive revenue growth in our industry.

Operator

And now to the line of Rich Valera from Needham & Company.

Richard Valera - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

Greg, you mentioned that you've got 85% of your fourth quarter number covered. Could you remind us what may be a more typical number would be heading into the fourth quarter and how that compares?

Gregory K. Hinckley

A lot less, or I wouldn't have brought it up.

Richard Valera - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

I got that it was less. But would it be more like a 75 number and you can put the magnitude?

Gregory K. Hinckley

I won’t go into that, but I just -- we are unusually strong actually in the third quarter going into the fourth. And while we're not forecasting it yet, we have reason to be very optimistic with our book of business that we have in the fourth quarter.

Richard Valera - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

Sure. And relatedly, a couple of quarters ago I think you might have said you actually thought you might have a book-to-bill of less than 1 for the year, and I think last quarter you kind of deferred on any comments and now it seems like you're reasonably comfortable with the idea that you have a positive book-to-bill. Can you talk about maybe about where you've seen the incremental strength that gives you the confidence now that you could see a positive book-to-bill for the year?

Gregory K. Hinckley

So it really comes down, Rich, this has been a really terrific year. So what we have now is, as Wally said, we've had -- our bookings for the year have grown 20%. And we've had every one of our product lines grow at 15% or greater. So scalable verification is up 15%. The Design-to-Silicon year-to-date is up 15%. Our Integrated System Design is up 15%, and New & Emerging is up 60%. So it is -- we have -- we really have broad-based strength. We have the new -- we have emulation really beginning to kick in. It's been doing well for us, but it's really kicking in now. Our embedded software business is -- it seems to be on fire. And so all I can say is it is exceptionally broad-based and I can't point out any particular part of our product line; all of it is very strong.

Richard Valera - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

Okay. That's helpful color. And then on the book-to-bill for the quarter, I gather it was a record. I just wanted to clarify, was it actually above 1:1 for the quarter or actually below?

Walden C. Rhines

Oh, you're not kidding [ph]. It was above 1.

Richard Valera - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

It was above 1:1 for the quarter?

Walden C. Rhines

Yes.

Richard Valera - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

Okay, got you. Great. And then with respect to the Catapult/Calypto transaction, did that have any impact on, aside from the charge which you backed out on the EPS for the quarter -- on the non-GAAP EPS for the quarter?

Gregory K. Hinckley

Yes, [indiscernible], no. What we have is the -- it actually was slightly adverse. So the charge -- there wasn't a charge, it was actually a gain.

Nonrecurring, which we backed out of our non-GAAP EPS. But what we -- we reported essentially no revenue for our Catapult C for the quarter and going forward, we will be reporting our -- the joint business between Catapult C and the previous Calypto on a 90-day lag basis. So it will be a slight upside to what we saw in the third quarter will happen in the fourth.

Richard Valera - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

Great. And then one final one if I could, just on the linearity of the business, which as you noted, has improved significantly on a year-over-year basis. Can you talk about sort of what's driving that? I mean it sounds like maybe some renewals maybe happened earlier than they would have historically instead of 4Q, 3Q, but is there anything that you can talk about that you've done in the business to try to maybe incent sales people to not close everything in the fourth quarter that's actually having some impact on that?

Walden C. Rhines

Yes, we've been doing all that, okay? And we've been criticized by -- periodically by some of our friends in the financial community about how back-ended our business has gotten to be, and so we are incenting our sales organization to book in revenue business earlier than the natural renewal will be -- what would have been, which will cause the business to be more linear as well in the future. And what I can also assure you, that we will exit the year with considerably more backlog from -- and we will have incurred the bookings from pull-aheads and as I say, the whole purpose of this is to increase the linearity of the business over the quarters of the year.

Operator

And now to the line of Tom Diffely from D.A. Davidson.

Thomas Diffely - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

First of all I was hoping for a little definition. In your press release, you talked about a GENIVI compliant product for the embedded systems. And maybe a little bit more on that.

Walden C. Rhines

Well yes, Tom. The GENIVI is concatenation of Geneva, the international city of world peace with in-vehicle infotainment. It's basically just an automotive industry standard for electronic information entertainment. And it's a standard that our software helps people to comply with.

Thomas Diffely - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Okay. Do you see a fairly large market going forward then?

Walden C. Rhines

We do. Most of the automotive companies in the world have adopted it and so there's great demand and we're sort of unique in bringing it to the open source community and providing tools. Actually, we were the first to provide certified tools that can allow customers to assure compliance with the standard.

Gregory K. Hinckley

So Tom, the automobile industry, interestingly enough, has decided to take the infotainment systems going forward and base them on Android. So Android, as you know, first came out as a cellphone standard and now is being proliferated in other industries. One of the big market opportunities is GENIVI-compliant, which is an automotive version of the software that is used in the Android-based cellphones.

Thomas Diffely - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Okay, yes. You talked about how Europe itself is going to be a bit of a driver for growth in the fourth quarter. Is that mainly automobile-based or is it other things as well?

Walden C. Rhines

No. Actually, it's quite broad and it includes the goal design verification as well for a big piece of it.

Thomas Diffely - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Okay. And then Greg, I don't know if there's some way you can quantify either your cost reduction efforts or the movements in the operating expenses over the last year, with or without Valor, see how that impacts everything?

Gregory K. Hinckley

Well, I think that probably the biggest indication is we have our revenues up approximately 10%, our headcount is flat. So year-over-year, we've had no increase in headcount. In our business, operating expenses is all about people, their salaries and what they spend. We're determined to control both. And so the biggest driver is we're trying to force all of us to do more with no more people. But nonetheless we've had other activities, we're trying to be more efficient on facilities, we have -- we're quite -- we continue to be in a cost control mode on travel. So this has driven over the last several years tens of millions of dollars of savings, and we're not letting up.

Thomas Diffely - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Okay, all right. And then if you can look at the New & Emerging bookings, obviously this quarter was driven by the Design-to-Silicon. But the drop in the New & Emerging, is that mainly just a timing issue or was there a big slug that came through in the second quarter that's being digested? Or how do you look at that?

Walden C. Rhines

So as we mentioned, year-to-date, New & Emerging is really incredible, 50% for the year. So it's a minor perturbation and a comparison to the prior year.

Gregory K. Hinckley

That's some of it. And then the other thing, we have historically included Catapult C, our C Synthesis product line, which we were doing $10 million of revenue annually in that category. And just last quarter, for all intents and purposes, we had nothing. So we will have a obviously better quarter for Catapult C and Calypto in the fourth quarter. So I would expect it will be up.

Thomas Diffely - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Okay. And then finally, may be a quick update on just the PC market, kind of the trends you're seeing there and the kind of the technology movements versus just the kind of the overall supply and demand for PC?

Walden C. Rhines

[indiscernible] Printed the circuit board?

Thomas Diffely - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Yes.

Walden C. Rhines

So the momentum has, for the full year, has been quite strong. But it has been a combination of things, the analysis tools has been strong particularly signal integrity. We don't have, as many large Mill Arrow kinds of renewals this year, but we do have a broader base of business there. And we have a variety of new customers moving in for utilization of somewhat unique capabilities we offer in PCB that are not generally available elsewhere, particularly in physical layout and analysis.

Thomas Diffely - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Okay. I guess that brings up one more question. What is your exposure to the defense spending right now? And how do you see that working over the next year or so?

Walden C. Rhines

So it's certainly true that Federal spending on defense will be weak. First of all, it has a long time to work its way back through to the design and development programs. Number two, the initial cuts and cost reduction tend to affect deployment more than design. But over the long-term, most of our Mill Arrow customers are being relatively conservative. And you saw that in their renewals, which though they grew a lot during the latter part of last year, they were not as strong as they could have been, if they felt there was a growing budget.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] I would now like to go to the line of Saket Kalia with JPMorgan.

Saket Kalia - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Can you talk about how the FX headwind on expenses compared in the quarter to your expectation? And what impact, if any, it had an EPS?

Gregory K. Hinckley

Yes. It was unfavorable to somewhere at $0.02 to $0.03 for the quarter. And we expect it -- the euro has since weakened and recall I said that the euro just last quarter averaged $1.41. So it took $1.41 to buy a euro in the third quarter compared to $1.32 last year. And right now, the euro is trading somewhere like $1.34. So if it holds up, there is -- it will help our results and a stronger yen since we do all of our billings in -- or most of our billings in Japan and yen is also very helpful.

Saket Kalia - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Okay. And then moving to kind of the contract renewals in the quarter. Was there any top 10 renewals in the quarter that were scheduled for next year than renewed early? And if so, how many.

Walden C. Rhines

There was one. We have -- and we have an equivalent amount in -- or more in backlog book, but the value was not shipped.

Saket Kalia - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Okay. So can you just clarify that, there was one -- so there was one, but it went into backlog. It didn't help the revenues then, is that right?

Gregory K. Hinckley

That's correct. And we expect to have the same effect in the fourth quarter. We are predicting that are the -- we will have we -- in order to create linearity, Saket, what we have to do is encourage our customers to sign contracts at a different part of the year than the fourth quarter because otherwise, we would always have -- with the renewals, we would have the fourth quarter's and the other periods of time. But we expect as we exit the fourth quarter that we will have a backlog that will be greater than the value of any expiring contracts that we will have done in the third and fourth quarter.

Saket Kalia - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Okay. And then last question, just to make sure I understand the Calypto accounting. How much will that combined entity generate annually? It doesn't sound like there was any contribution here in the third quarter. But what, if anything, are you including in your fourth quarter guidance?

Walden C. Rhines

We're not prepared to forecast the results yet.

Saket Kalia - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Okay. And I guess you said Catapult C had done kind of $10 million annually. Historically, can you speak to Calypto historically?

Walden C. Rhines

I think their results are private.

Operator

Thank you. We have no more questions in queue. Please continue.

Walden C. Rhines

Well ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for joining us this afternoon. For a follow-up call, both Greg and I will be available and the best way to reach us is by calling Monte Koller at (503) 685-1462, and she will make sure that Greg or I or both of us will get back to you in as timely fashion as possible. Operator, if you could please provide the listeners the dial-in information for replay purposes.

Operator

Absolutely. Ladies and gentlemen, this call will be available for replay after 4 p.m. Pacific Time today until November 24, 2012 at midnight. You may enter the -- you may access the AT&T replay center at any time by dialing 1 (800) 475-6701, and entering the access code of 224044. International participants may dial (320) 365-3844. [Operator Instructions] And this does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using the AT&T Executive Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.

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