Mortgage, Oil, Consumer Data On Slate

Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY
by: optionMONSTER

The economic calendar is full as it includes the last reports for the week. Market action could be especially volatile up until 11 a.m. ET, when the last release hits the wires.

At 7 a.m. ET, MBA Purchase Applications will be released. I follow only the purchases component of this mortgage report because it indicates fresh economic activity as opposed to refinancing.

Economists do not make forecasts for this release, but last week purchases came in at 179. A reading higher than that by 5 percent or more would be bullish, while a number that is lower by the same margin or more would be bearish.

Personal Income and Outlays will be reported at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus expectation is for incomes to increase by 0.3 percent while spending rises at a faster clip of 0.4 percent. This scenario is less than ideal because it suggests that consumers may not be able to keep purchases rising as incomes remain below consumption growth.

Estimates for incomes range from flat to a rise of 0.5 percent. Forecasts for spending range from 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. An ideal report would be for a match between the rates of income and spending.

Jobless Claims also comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Most economists expect initial claims to total 390,000, a slight rise from last week. Estimates range from a bullish 375,000 claims to a more bearish 400,000. A reading above 400,000 would likely be a negative for markets.

Durable Goods Orders will be the last report scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus forecast calls for orders to come in at -1 percent compared with last month. The range is a bearish -3.5 percent to a bullish 1.2 percent.

The last reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November will be released at 9:55 a.m. ET. The number, typical of final revisions for the month, is not expected to change much. The consensus expects a reading of 64.5 among estimates that range from a bearish 62.5 to a bullish 67.

The EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released at 11 a.m. ET. Before the EIA data comes out, the American Petroleum Institute issues a competing report based on its own supply data.

The forecast for both reports was for a build of 0.48 million barrels. But the API release, which came out last night after the market closed, showed a surprise draw of -5.569 million barrels instead.

If the EIA data confirms this number or shows an even larger draw, it could be bullish for crude. If it is a smaller draw or a positive number indicating a build, it could be bearish for oil.

The EIA is a government body, and the API is a private industry group. The two reports do not always agree either in terms of amount or direction.