Going into “Black Friday” and the holiday season we analyzed sector performance to determine if there was any pronounced move during the traditionally strong retail period.
From the Wednesday prior to “Black Friday” (and Thanksgiving) until the end of the calendar year, the S&P 500 gains, on average, 2.0% and has been positive 81% of the time. Not surprisingly, this period has been positive for the discretionary sector (higher in seventeen out of the past twenty-one years), but additional top performers have been utilities (positive 86% of the time), industrial (76%), health care (76%) sectors. The strongest average percentage gains have come from the industrial and materials sectors with 3.1% and 3.6% respectively. The discretionary sector gains, on average, 2.4%.