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D Fry Market Outlook 29 03 2007
Bee-Gee Days
Were More Fun

I just can't help it -- I love this image. I had more fun back then too, didn't you? Anyway grown-up and serious Ben had another moment to spin his yarn about what's good and not so good about the economy.

Investors wanted to hear something more understanding regarding the weakening economy and less about inflation being still uncomfortably high. At the end of the testimony, there wasn't anything new for bulls.

For Ben, it's back to message testing with Fed focus groups.

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Over the weekend we pointed out that markets appeared to forming a "W" formation which is often regarded as bullish. Further, there are plenty of analysts noting the 9-1 ratio of positive volume and advancing issues during the previous week's big move higher. This too is historically bullish. But, Mr. Market appears to have other things on his mind since the patterns we're seeing are anything but typical.

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If you're old enough, you might remember the comedy classic [MMMMW] featured above you might appreciate the "Big W" reference. Over half the cast pictured, not to mention others not featured, are now deceased. But, it has nothing to do with much of anything other than the "Big W," and that I watch the movie once a year, so...

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Elsewhere around the planet everything is moving along in the pretty much the same manner.

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I thought today would be significant, and it was -- Bernanke didn't throw a bone to the bulls. I think he may be more concerned with the weakening dollar, and wanted to show his inflation fighting resolve. However, to ignore the evidence of deteriorating economic conditions is hard to understand. Declining home prices exacerbated by mortgage market difficulties will negatively affect consumer spending. And consumer spending represents two-thirds of the economy currently. So I find his comments rather mystifying.

The stand-off with Iran continues to heighten anxieties. Do the Iranians really want to risk it all over this incident? If they find a face-saving way out of the situation, oil prices and perhaps gold will fall sharply.

Ben was having more fun as a Bee-Gee don't you think? I was too.

Have a pleasant evening.

Disclaimer: Among other issues, the ETF Digest maintains positions in: iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:IEF), streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund (NYSEARCA:DBP), PowerShares DB Energy Fund (NYSEARCA:DBE), PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEARCA:DBC), PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSEARCA:UDN), iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:EFA), iShares MSCI Mexico Index ETF (NYSEARCA:EWW), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSEARCA:IEV), iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (NYSEARCA:EWA), iShares MSCI Austria Index Fund (NYSEARCA:EWO) and iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (NYSEARCA:EWJ).

Source: David Fry's Daily Market Outlook for Thursday