The Truth About Black Friday

Includes: BBY, M, SKS, TGT, WMT, XRT
by: Dana Blankenhorn

Every Christmas shopping season investors get whipsawed by the easy lies told by journalists.

  1. Before the season starts, there is uncertainty and bearishness.
  2. When the season starts, “Black Friday” crowds lead to bold predictions and bullishness.
  3. As the season develops bullishness peaks and turns to uncertainty.
  4. As the end of the season approaches bearishness returns.

Once the totals come in we usually find it's a wash. The Christmas selling season is what it is, no better and no worse. The actual results vary, but are almost always tied to the underlying economy.

In the case of this Christmas season I see reasons to be bearish on Black Friday. LCD TVs are hot. Cameras are a trending product.

This tells me people are looking for absolute bargains, not leading edge merchandise. There is nostalgia for a tree filled with presents, but there isn't much money to bring that dream to real life. So people are stretching their dollars as best they can.

All of which means you can expect to see those bearish stories coming on sooner than ever this holiday season, and lasting longer. It also means you can expect to see the biggest gains among the biggest stores, like WalMart WMT and Target TGT, those known for stocking cut-rate merchandise. High-retailers are likely to do poorly.

Do your own shopping accordingly.


I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.