During the last few weeks I have suggested stocks that are oversold and showing resistance with the potential for gains. There have been some to post gains but others that lost value as the market's trended lower over the last two weeks. The Dow is trading with an 8% loss since October 28 with turmoil in Europe creating fear on a daily basis.
I believe this upcoming week will return high gains as some experts suggest that this last weekend was one of the best retail weekends in history, or possibly the best. Therefore, with such strong sales, along with other important indicators being announced this week, I believe the markets may finally trade on American progress rather than European fear. As a result, I have listed 7 stocks that have posted losses that I believe will return large gains this week.
During the last three months Citigroup's (C) performance has been frustrating at best. The stock is one of the more volatile movers within the market with a beta of 2.55, which means it usually loses a higher amount of value when the market trends lower. However, it also posts larger gains when the market trends higher and I believe that its current price of $23.53 is presenting a perfect opportunity for short-term gains.
In the last two months the stock has dropped below $24 on three separate occasions and so far it's traded above $27 each time for large gains. The large banking stocks are some of the more dangerous short-term trades within the market, however each time the market's been at these levels it's recovered to post gains. I believe that Citigroup will return large gains over the next year, and that it will trade higher once the stress tests show the company's overall strength. However, I believe that with Citigroup's low valuation it could very well trend higher during the next week assuming the market trades higher with strong sales from the holiday season.
Bank of America (BAC) could be the most controversial stock in the market with investors having strong opinions regarding its future. And although I'm not sold on its long-term performance, I do believe that it presents a significant opportunity for short-term gains. BAC is now trading near 52 week lows at nearly 25% of its book value per share and is the most undervalued of the large money center bank stocks that have been affected by the events taking place in Europe.
The stock has shown resistance over the last two days despite it trading 118% more volatile than the market. I believe that with any encouraging news the stock will post gains and that it could easily trend above $6.50, a price that it's consistently trended above after posting large loss over the last four months.
There is more excitement surrounding Sprint (S) than at any point over the last three years, yet its stock is trading near 52 week lows. The company is now offering its customers the iPhone; it's spending money to upgrade its network; and it has a realistic opportunity to be acquired by one of the large cable companies that are looking to add a communication service provider.
The stock is by far the lowest valued of any other communication stock, trading at almost 50% of its book value per share. Since October, the stock has dropped below $2.50 several times, and each time it recovers to at least $2.85. And since this market trades so heavily on technicals I expect for Sprint to recover and trend higher once again, especially considering its wild price swing on Friday of $0.24.
Alcatel-Lucent's (ALU) recent trend is something I'm unable to justify, but then again, it's hard to justify most of the trends within the market. The stock has lost 43% of its value over the last month after lowering its guidance because of weaker demand in Europe, which should be expected. However, the company posted earnings that showed remarkable progress which includes $267 million of net income compared to $25 million year-over-year, also margins that have more than doubled since last year.
This stock posted a gain of 4% on Friday, which was near the lows of the day. Therefore, I believe the stock is oversold and that investors are comfortable buying at this price of $1.54, and I wouldn't be surprised if once it begins to gain it climbs to $2.80, its trading price before the sell-off.
General Motors (GM) has shown remarkable progress over the last year, yet its stock is trading with a 40% loss and a P/E of 4.58. Over the last 12 months General Motors has increased revenue by nearly $15 billion over 2010, with solid growth during each month of this year. The strong growth has been a result of its emphasis on fuel-efficiency which has led to more vehicles being purchased that actually save the consumer money. I believe that GM presents a strong likelihood to post gains with the Thanksgiving holiday weekend being one of its strongest periods of the year.
And I also expect to see great sales numbers for its new Volt, which it has marketed very well with several commercials that inform the consumer of just how much money the car can actually save the consumer. I believe that GM will be one of the best performing stocks of 2012 and that it will build off the success of the Cruze with similar models and post great sales with its new Volt. And with the stock trading near 52 week lows and expecting to announce strong monthly sales, I believe that this will be a huge week for the stock that's currently trading at $20.34.
Since I believe that GM will post gains this week, that means that Ford Motors (F) will have to post gains as well. The auto stocks, much like the banking stocks, trade in similar patterns; therefore, I expect all auto stocks to rise with most being undervalued. Yet, much like GM, there are fundamental reasons that F should rise, which include: increased sales, improved fundamentals, and strong guidance. This company has given no indication that it expects declining sales yet the stock has been hammered over the last few months. One reason is that the stock trades 136% more volatile than the market, and since the markets are trading on fear and technicals, it doesn't matter how much the company has improved.
Yet, the stock has shown resistance over the last four days with a loss of only 1.4% despite the Dow Jones' 3% loss which indicates that investors aren't selling as fast at prices near $10. I believe that over the next few days the stock could potentially rise to its previous resistance of $11 and that strong sales from the holiday weekend may be enough to allow the stock to trade on its fundamentals rather than the European financial crisis.
I have been one of the more critical writers on Research in Motion (RIMM) over the last year for its failure to innovate. The stock has fallen more than 70% over the last year with a declining market share along with less consumer interest in its BlackBerry brand. The stock continuously creates new 52 week lows on a daily basis and is now trading with a P/E of under 3. And although I'm skeptical of the company going forward, I believe that this week could be huge for the stock after it releases data from the holiday weekend. The company made what I believe is the best business decision of the year by lowering its Playbook tablet to just $200 for the weekend, and it was sold out nearly everywhere.
This proves that there is still a market for the BlackBerry brand, but that the consumer is not willing to pay $500 for the tablet. I hope the company learns from this weekend and possibly lowers its Playbook tablet's price permanently to under $300 and quits trying to compete with Apple (AAPL). Although the Playbook is a great product and has arguably the best picture of any tablet, the consumer is simply not interested in purchasing the tablet for $500. However, at $300 there would be a market and the company would still return a profit. I believe the company needs to rebrand itself and exit the BlackBerry brand. However, with strong sales last weekend and an oversold stock, I believe it's well positioned for decent gains from its price of $16.
There are a large number of oversold stocks within the market after months of strong selling and fear of a European financial disaster. And I believe that after strong sales this holiday weekend investors may look past Europe and consider the possibility that the United States economy is improving. Investors can expect retail stocks to post gains and should pay close attention to monthly sales reports for large retail companies. It could give us an indication of what's to come for the remainder of the holiday season and could indicate more gains to come for the most oversold and undervalued stocks within the market.