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Although the manufacturing surveys of the main districts for November are a mixed bag, the surveys on average indicate that growth has stabilised or even accelerated somewhat. The Philadelphia and Kansas City Feds reported continued but slower growth, while the New York Fed and Richmond Fed Surveys indicate that the contraction in the manufacturing sector has halted.

Philadelphia Fed

NY Empire State

Richmond Fed

Kansas City Fed

Average of Surveys

Oct 2011






Nov 2011







Growing slower

From contracting

Contraction stalled

Growing slower

Growing faster

Sources: Dismal Scientist; Plexus Asset Management.

(Click to enlarge)

Sources: Dismal Scientist; Plexus Asset Management.

On balance, it seems to me that the November ISM manufacturing PMI will be unchanged to slightly higher from October’s 50.8. There have been diversions in the past but on average, the four surveys indicate that growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector has bottomed … for the moment.

(Click to enlarge)

Sources: Dismal Scientist; ISM; Plexus Asset Management.

Source: U.S. Manufacturing PMI Goes Higher In November?