American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) is due with Q3 results in the pre-market session on Wednesday, Nov. 30. The Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate is for EPS of $0.27 on $787 million in sales.
In the last 26 earnings-driven extended hours events we've tracked, AEO has followed through with more aggressive next-day, same-direction trade in 16 of its following regular-hours trading sessions. In the near-term, the stock favors widening between the sessions, adding to its pre-bell direction in follow-on regular session action in the last six consecutive quarters.
Looking deeper into the performance data, AEO recorded an earnings-driven extended-hours gain in 15 of the quarters tracked in our database. In eight of those quarters, or 53% of the time, the stock added to its advance in the following regular session. On the downside, AEO recorded an earnings-driven extended-hours decline in 11 quarters, extending its negative trade in follow-on action in eight of those events, or 73% of the time.
- On Aug. 24, 2011, AEO shed 7.5% in pre-bell trading after missing Q2 earnings estimates. The stock moved slightly lower in the follow-on regular session, ending down 8.7%.
- On May 25, 2011, AEO dropped 1.1% in pre-market trading after reporting mixed results and guidance. The stock moved further in the red in that day's regular session, ending down 4.7%.
- On March 9, 2011, AEO advanced 1.7% in pre-bell action after reporting a year-over-year gain in Q4 earnings on lower sales. The stock surged higher in that day's regular session, advancing 5.1% by the close.
- On Nov. 18, 2010, AEO gained 0.9% in pre-market trading after meeting Q3 earnings estimates and beating on sales. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, closing up 2.7%.
- On August 25, 2010, the stock gained 1.6% after meeting with earnings but issuing mixed guidance. Shares rose a more robust 7.9% in the regular session.
- On May 26, 2010, AEO slumped 6.9% in pre-market trading after meeting Q1 earnings expectations but issuing a weak outlook. The stock headed deeper in the red in that day's regular session, sliding 16.6% by the close.
- On March 10, 2010, AEO advanced 6.7% in pre-market trading after meeting EPS estimates, beating on revenue and setting guidance in line with expectations. The stock cut its upside the following regular session, ending up 6.1%.
- On Nov. 24, 2009, AEO gained 4.8% in pre-bell trading after meeting earnings expectations and beating on sales. The stock ended that day's regular session with a narrower upside move, closing up 3.2%.
- On Aug. 27, 2009, AEO declined 2.1% in pre-market trading after meeting EPS expectations, missing on sales, and setting Q3 guidance in line with estimates. The stock ended the Aug. 27 regular session down 3.9%.
- During the May 27, 2009, pre-market, the stock fell 4.9% after meeting with Q1 earnings and guiding in line. AEO closed regular trading down 1%.
- On March 11, 2009, AEO advanced 0.8% in pre-market trading after meeting earnings expectations and coming in shy on sales. The stock added slightly to its gain in the following regular session, ending the day up 1.2%.
- On Nov. 25, 2008, AEO recorded no pre-market trades after reporting in line with Q3 EPS and beating with sales. It closed up 8.5% later that day.
- On Aug. 26, 2008, AEO declined 2.4% in pre-market trading after beating on earnings but also setting its guidance below expectations. The stock recorded a sharp reversal in the following regular session, ending Aug. 26's bell-to-bell action up 4%.
- On May 28, 2008, AEO advanced 5.6% in pre-market trading after topping earnings expectations. The stock headed even higher in that day's regular session, closing with an 8% gain.
- On March 12, 2008, AEO advanced 4.7% in pre-market trading after meeting Q4 earnings expectations and coming in shy on sales. The gain was trimmed just a bit in the following regular session, with AEO ending the day up 4.0%.
- In the Nov. 27, 2007 pre-market, AEO was up 1.3% after reporting shy with sales and meeting with earnings, plus guiding largely below the Street's view. The stock finished regular trading that day down 0.7%.
- On Aug. 21, 2007, AEO advanced 1.7% in pre-market trading after beating on Q2 but also issuing a Q3 earnings view below the Street estimate. The stock saw that gain evaporate in the regular session, losing 0.8% by the closing bell.
- On May 22, 2007, AEO eased 1.9% in the pre-market session despite about meeting Q1 estimates and setting a share buyback. Shares fell even further in the regular session, ending down 4.3%.
- On March 7, 2007, AEO slipped 3.6% in the pre-market session despite topping Q4 and FY sales estimates and reporting Q4 EPS in line with expectations. Shares recovered slightly in regular trade but still ended down 2.8%.
- On Nov. 14, 2006, AEO gained 2.5% in pre-market trading after the company topped expectations and set its guidance ahead of the Street view. It held the bulk of the extended-hours gain in the regular session but slipped back a bit, closing the day up 2.4%.
- AEO advanced 1.8% in the pre-market on Aug. 15, 2006, rising after topping sales expectations and issuing strong guidance. The stock ended that day's regular session up 4.9%.
- On May 3, 2006, AEO closed the after hours session up 2.8% after topping Q2 estimates. The shares rose further the next day, ending up 3.3%.
- On March 1, 2006, AEO jumped 7.1% in pre-bell action after the company beat Q4 expectations. Buyers moved more aggressively into the shares in regular session play, boosting the stock 13.5% by the closing bell.
- On Nov. 15, 2005, shares fell 3% after reports that Q3 sales topped the FC mean for $570 million and EPS beat by a penny. Guidance for Q4 was below the FC mean and shares fell 4.6% the next day.
- On August 16, 2005, AEO ended the pre-market session down 7.5% after the company topped Q2 estimates but lowered its Q3 outlook. The stock closed the day session even lower, down 9.2%.
- On May 12, 2005, AEO closed the pre-market session down 0.5% despite beating Q1 estimates and raising earnings expectations for Q2. The shares expanded their losses during the same day's regular-hours session, ending down 6.2%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.