Seeking Alpha
Profile| Send Message| ()  

The economic calendar is full today, which could make trading more volatile than usual.

In addition to the weekly mortgage numbers, we will see reports on employment, purchasing managers, home sales, oil supplies, and productivity and costs.

Then in the afternoon, the Fed's Beige Book, its anecdotal survey of regional economic conditions, will be released at 2 p.m. ET. The USDA's Farm Prices report will be out at 3 p.m. ET.

At 7 a.m. ET, the MBA Purchase Applications data will be released. I look only at the purchases component because it reflects new economic activity as opposed to refinancing.

Economists don't make forecasts for this report, but last week's purchases came in at 193.6. A reading that is higher than this by 5 percent or more would be bullish, while one that is lower by the same margin would be bearish.

The Challenger Job Cut Report at 7:30 a.m. ET will be the first of several employment-related releases for the week. There is no estimate made for the report, but last month's release estimated layoffs at 42,800. A reading well above 50,000 is generally considered bearish, while a drop below 40,000 would be bullish.

At 8:15 a.m. ET, the ADP Employment Report comes out. The consensus forecast calls for a rise to 130,000, which would be an increase of 20,000 from last month. The range is from a bearish 90,000 to a very bullish 160,000.

Productivity and Costs will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Productivity is seen growing by 2.6 percent. Estimates range from a slightly more bearish 2.2 percent to a bullish 3.6 percent. The consensus expectation for labor costs is -2.2 percent from a range of -3.2 percent to -1.5 percent.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index will be reported at 9:45 a.m. ET. The index is expected to be largely unchanged at 58.4. Estimates range from a bearish 56 to a bullish 60.7.

At 10 a.m. ET, the Pending Home Sales Index will be released. Consensus calls for a small rise of 1.5 percent. The range is from a bearish -4.6 percent to a bullish 3.5 percent.

The EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released at 11 a.m. ET. Before the EIA data comes out, the American Petroleum Institute issues a competing report based on its own supply data.

The forecast for both reports was for a small draw of -0.188 million barrels. But the API release, which came out last night after the market closed, showed a surprise build of 3.439 million barrels instead.

If the EIA data confirms this number or shows an even larger build, it could be bearish for crude. If it shows a smaller build than the API's 3.439 million barrels or is a negative number, indicating a draw, it could be bullish for oil prices.

The EIA is a government body, and the API is a private industry group. The two reports do not always agree either in terms of amount or direction.

Source: Full Calendar Includes 2 Labor Reports