OK, so I can't be certain that the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) TV will flop, but I haven't heard a lot of optimism about the product and it's definitely missing a lot of features. At least add a DVR. I can understand no DVD because you can play the DVD on your computer. Oh but wait, you can't stream from your DVD drive to your TV. The DVR was a necessity for the product. It needs to be able to stream back to your computer and allow you to watch TV on your computer or transfer shows to your iPod. But that would lead to fewer TV show sales on iTunes. Apple has developed another great idea, but it needs more.
Because of these missing features, it’s my opinion that investors will be disappointed by Apple TV sales. After we see the stock drop from these missed sales it will be a good time to buy in and prepare for the incoming iPhone. The iPhone is a great product with great features. The only really bad thing I've heard about the iPhone is the price tag. Do I need to remind people that the first iPod was $399 and only held 1000 songs? We all know how that story turned out. I do worry about the virtual keyboard, but we’ll have to wait and see.
The final argument for buying Apple is their superior computers. Nothing can beat the MacBook Pro, especially now that it can run windows. They are well built and perform exceptionally well. I understand they are more expensive then a Dell but you get so much more.
Apple is a great long-term buy, but I say wait a little bit. I don't think we'll see any exciting numbers from the Apple TV and we still have to wait until June before the iPhone comes out. Not to mention with the anticipation of the iPhone we might see some iPod cannibalization. I would recommend buying into apple at least by May. Once June gets closer the news and discussions on the iPhone will really increase. Apple’s stock price will probably take a jump before the official release.
AAPL 1-yr chart
Disclosure: Author has no position in Apple