Strength In Retail Sales Ahead?

by: David I. Templeton, CFA

A common view from pundits on the strength in retail sales on Black Friday and Cyber Monday is that much of the increase represented consumers buying forward. In other words, the common take on the strong sales report was it likely won't continue into December. If history is any guide, the below chart might indicate additional retail sales growth is likely for the balance of the weeks leading up to Christmas.

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From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors
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The dollar value of total cyber sales increased 22% versus last year and dollars spent per buyer increased 9%.

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From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors
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Since consumers account for 70% of GDP, these retail sales figures suggest Q4 GDP could surprise on the upside.

Source: (comScore) Cyber Monday Spending Hits $1.25 Billion to Rank as Heaviest U.S. Online Spending Day in History November 29, 2011.

Disclosure: None