It is hard, or nearly impossible, to predict the market. What I believe is that a growing economy equals a growing market, and that a growing company equals an increasing share price. I am looking today at companies with a realistic chance to double their share price in the next 24 months. I have included large stocks like Intel (INTC), Xerox (XRX) and Discover (DFS), along with some smaller cap stocks like Brightpoint (CELL) and Cambrex (CBM). I chose these candidates due to a combination of good growth prospects, current undervaluing compared to peers, balance sheet health, and current share price. I encourage you to research further before investing. These are listed in no particular order.
Intel Inc (INTC)
Intel is a world leader in microchips, integrated circuits, and similar devices It was trading recently for about $25 per share, near the top of its 52 week range of from $25:50 to $19.61. Intel has a market capitalization of nearly $127 billion, and a current P/E of 10.8. Intel's stock pays a current dividend of $0.21 per quarter, for an annual yield of 3.6%.
Intel is in this analysis because it is on a roll that shows no sign of ending. It has set new quarterly revenue records for six periods in a row. In the third quarter of 2011, its revenue was up by over $3 billion, or 28%, from the year ago period. Its profits were a record $4.8 billion, up 16% year over year. It generated $6.3 billion in cash, and is returning much of that to shareholders, as management has authority from the board to spend over $14 billion to repurchase shares.
Intel has a nearly pristine balance sheet. At the close of the third quarter of 2011, it had over $15 billion cash and short term investments on hand, and a little over $7 billion in debt. It carries a high bond rating, and has raised its dividend each of the past seven years.
Given Intel's balance sheet, high revenue growth, cash generation, and returns to shareholders, I would be disappointed if this stock were not to reach $50 by the end of 2013. In the meantime lock in the yield that is nearly double the ten year treasury yield.
Brightpoint, Inc. (CELL)
Indianapolis-based Brightpoint is a world leader in smart phone logistics and parts and service, and it has entered aggressively the emerging tablet market. Its stock was trading recently at just over $10 per share, near the midpoint of its 52 week range of from $13.22 to $7.37. Its market capitalization is just under $700 million, and its P/E is 14. It does not pay a dividend.
After struggling some in the recessionary economy in 2008 and 2009, Brightpoint's revenue and profits are improving dynamically. In its third quarter of 2011, revenue increased 51% from the year earlier quarter to $1.34 billion and profits from continuing operations increased by 26%, to almost $21 million, or $0.29 per share. Fourth quarter sales have historically been Brightpoint's strength, and I look for a similar year over year increase in the fourth quarter.
Brightpoint is in the right place at the right time. It will handle this year roughly 110 million smart phones and tablets, and that industry is growing rapidly, worldwide. Analysts' mean recommendation is 1.7, or a strong buy. Over the next year or two, I can easily see this stock double.
Xerox Corp. (XRX)
Xerox has been beaten down over the past 15 years due to a stale product image and economic factors. Things though are looking up. Xerox was trading recently for a little over $8 per share, toward the low end of its 52 week range of from $12.08 to $6.55. Its market capitalization is $11.6 billion, and its P/E is 11.3. It pays a current annual dividend of $0.17. for a yield of 2.1%
In its third quarter of 2011, Xerox reported earnings of $329 million, up 29% from the year earlier quarter. This even though it was still recovering from parts shortages due to natural disasters in Japan.
It is helpful to contrast Xerox with another tech darling from the 1970's, Eastman Kodak Inc. (EK). Both companies saw their principle markets dry up. Eastman Kodak has yet to find an effective substitute for film photography, and is not profitable. Meanwhile, Xerox has invested in new technologies such as its new solid ink modules, and obtained some $4 billion in revenue this last quarter just from services. Once many times larger than Xerox, Eastman Kodak's market capitalization is just $286 million.
Xerox is on track to spend over $700 million this year repurchasing stock, and has been investing roughly $1.5 billion annually in research and development. This is a company with a future, and between its own revenue and profit growth, and an expanding P/E, I can see it trading at $15 to $20 within the next two years.
Discover Financial Services (DFS)
Discover was spun off from Morgan Stanley (MS) in 1997 via the sale of 450 million shares at an average price of 30.19, for an initial market capitalization, not adjusted for inflation, of about $13.6 billion. It was trading recently at a little over $24 per share, and its current market capitalization is about $13.4. It is amazing that some 15 years later, given the billions of retained earnings that have been recorded, that the market capitalization has declined substantially, when accounting for inflation.
Discover's 52 week range is from $27.92 to $17.86, and its P/E is 6.5. It pays an annual dividend of $0.24, for a yield of 1.0%. A few statistics will distinguish DFS from its very high quality competitors, Visa, Inc (V) and Mastercard Inc. (MA).
Current Price and P/E
Year to year revenue increase%
Experts such as Vanguard Windsor II lead director James Barrow has been a buyer of Discover. I look for it to expand its P/E, and grow internally from its current state, with a price of $45 to $50 in the not too distant future being a reasonable goal.
Cambrex Corp. (CBM)
Cambrex is a leading maker of fundamental elements used in pharmaceutical products. Its stock was trading recently at about $7 per share, near the high end of its 52 week range of from $7.13 to $3.87. It has a market capitalization of a little over $200 million, and a P/E of 14.1. It pays no dividend.
Cambrex's fundamental business is very strong. In its third quarter of 2011, Cambrex reported revenues increased by 24% from the year earlier, and profits of $0.10 per share were a swing from a loss the year earlier. For the nine months ending September 30, 2011, profits were double what they were in 2010.
Cambrex has recently acquired a majority stake in Zenera Pharma, which gives Cambrex a leading position in nicotine replacement therapy in the Indian Subcontinent.
Cambrex in general seems to have shied away from marketing to major pharmaceutical companies, focusing instead on generic manufacturers. The growth of that end of the drug business augers well for Cambrex's fundamentals. I look for this niche manufacturer to grow its business enough to double its stock price within the next two years.