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After faltering in October, growth in global economic activity accelerated again in November. The global manufacturing sector remains in recession territory, while growth in the services sector inched ahead after dropping in October.

The JP Morgan Global Composite Index improved to 52.0 after falling to 51.4 in October. The improvement in the composite PMI can virtually be entirely attributed to a significant improvement in business conditions in the U.S. My GDP-weighted Composite ISM PMI, taking into account the Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index (the basis Markit uses to calculate the composite PMIs) instead of the PMI itself, showed a major improvement to 55.4 from 53.1 in October. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors both experienced accelerated growth.

My calculated GDP-weighted PMI for the Eurozone improved slightly to 47.2 from 46.6 in October as the deepening recession in the manufacturing sector was outweighed by an easing of the contraction in the services sector of the economy. France was a major contributor as a result of a significant easing of the contraction in France’s composite PMI from 45.6 to 48.8 in November. Germany moved from stagnation to contraction, though, while the U.K. managed to eke out slightly faster growth.

In contrast, business conditions in the other major economic regions weakened significantly. Both Japan and China took a turn for the worse in November. Growth in Japan’s services sector ended abruptly, while the manufacturing sector is contracting again. Significant weakness has crept into both economic sectors of China. Business conditions in Hong Kong have worsened again. Conditions in the major emerging economies turned for the better, though. Growth in India is accelerating again after stagnating in October, while growth in Russia is accelerating. Economic activity in Brazil also improved slightly.

GDP-weighted/ Composite PMI

Direction

Rate of change

Country Nov-11 Oct-11
U.S.*** 52.2 52.4 Growing Slower
U.S. BAI***(note 1) 55.4 53.1 Growing Faster
Eurozone**** 47.2 46.6 Contracting Slower
Germany* 49.4 50.3 Contracting From growing
France* 48.8 45.6 Contracting Slower
U.K.**** 50.8 50.2 Growing Faster
Japan* 48.9 52.4 Contracting From growing
Emerging Economies
China** 49.3 53.3 Contracting From growing
China S/A** 49.5 52.2 Contracting From growing
Brazil* 51.5 51.3 Growing Faster
India* 52.3 50.3 Growing Faster
Russia* 54.6 52.5 Growing Faster
Hong Kong* 48.7 49.0 Contracting Faster
UAE* 52.5 53.4 Growing Slower
Saudi Arabia* 58.1 56.7 Growing Faster
JP Morgan Global Composite*

52.0

51.4

Growing

Faster

Note: ISM Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index used instead of Non-manufacturing PMI.

Sources: *Markit; **CFLP, Li & Fung, Plexus Asset Management; ***ISM, Plexus; ****Markit, Plexus Asset Management.

Non-manufacturing/

Services PMI

Direction

Rate of Change

Country Nov-11 Oct-11
U.S.** 52.0 52.9 Growing Slower
U.S. BAI*** 56.2 53.8 Growing Faster
Eurozone 47.5 46.4 Contracting Slower
Germany 50.3 50.6 Growing Stagnating
France 49.6 44.6 Contracting Much slower
Italy 45.8 43.9 Contracting Slower
Spain 36.8 41.8 Contracting Much faster
Ireland 52.7 51.5 Growing Faster
U.K. 52.1 51.3 Growing Faster
Japan 49.5 52.3 Contracting From growing
Australia 47.7 48.8 Contracting Faster
Emerging Economies
Brazil 52.6 53.6 Growing Slower
China* 49.7 57.7 Contracting From robust growth
China S/A* 51.4 54.6 Growing Slower
India 53.2 49.1 Growing From contracting
Russia 54.8 53.5 Growing Faster
JPMorgan Global Services

52.6

51.8

Growing

Faster

Sources: Markit; CFLP*; ISM**; US Business Activity Index***; Plexus Asset Management.

Manufacturing PMI

Direction

Rate of Change

Country Nov-11 Oct-11
U.S.***** 52.7 50.8 Growing Faster
Eurozone* 46.4 47.1 Contracting Faster
Germany* 47.9 49.1 Contracting Faster
France* 47.3 48.5 Contracting Faster
Greece* 40.9 40.5 Contracting Slightly slower
Italy* 44.0 43.3 Contracting Slight slower
Spain* 43.8 43.9 Contracting Slightly faster
Ireland* 48.5 50.1 Contracting From growing
U.K.* 47.6 47.4 Contracting Slightly slower
Japan* 49.1 50.6 Contracting From growing
Australia* 47.8 47.4 Contracting Slightly slower
Emerging Economies
Brazil* 48.7 46.5 Contracting Slower
China** 49.0 50.4 Contracting From growing
China S/A 48.3 50.6 Contracting From growing
Czech* 48.6 51.7 Contracting From growing
Poland* 49.5 51.7 Contracting From growing
Turkey* 52.3 53.3 Growing Slower
India* 51.0 52.0 Growing Slower
Russia* 52.6 50.4 Growing Faster
Taiwan* 43.9 43.7 Contracting Slightly slower
RSA*** 51.6 50.5 Growing Faster
S Korea 47.1 48.0 Contracting Faster
Global**** 49.6 49.5 Contracting Slightly slower

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Asset Management****; ISM*****.

Source: Global PMI Scorecard: Not A Pretty Picture