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Jim Cramer issued 96 buy and sell stock opinions from 12.05.2011 to 12.09.2011:

Ticker

Cramer's Call

Airdate

Market Cap

P/E

P/B

P/S

Div Yield

EPS Growth Past 5 Years

EPS Growth Next 5 Years

Insider Transactions

KKR

Buy

12.05.2011

2704.31

18.47

2.28

4.09

5.5%

2.4%

12.5%

392.3%

VCLK

Buy

12.05.2011

1342.75

14.26

2.33

2.65

0.0%

18.5%

13.8%

-5.8%

GOOG

Buy

12.05.2011

203215.1

21.38

3.7

5.68

0.0%

39.3%

19.3%

-11.7%

GLD

Buy

12.05.2011

71368.96

0

0

0

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

KFN

Buy

12.05.2011

1557.03

4.86

0.96

2.85

8.2%

64.5%

0.0%

4.7%

CY

Buy

12.05.2011

2858.9

24.61

7.07

2.94

0.0%

10.7%

18.5%

20.0%

BIDU

Buy

12.05.2011

45526.68

50.59

22.08

23.21

0.0%

132.5%

49.7%

0.0%

MA

Buy

12.05.2011

47905.92

21.16

8.02

7.46

0.2%

48.0%

18.4%

-1.0%

FLR

Buy

12.05.2011

8903.76

16.66

2.7

0.4

1.0%

8.5%

12.9%

-51.8%

SLV

Sell

12.05.2011

10072.59

0

0

0

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CRM

Sell

12.05.2011

16847.68

6194

11.25

8.06

0.0%

14.5%

25.8%

-5.0%

CMG

Sell

12.05.2011

10598.18

52.74

10.61

4.92

0.0%

31.6%

23.0%

-1.9%

NFLX

Sell

12.05.2011

3924.47

16.11

9.59

1.34

0.0%

35.8%

21.3%

-40.8%

CCL

Sell

12.05.2011

26389.78

13.88

1.07

1.69

2.9%

-1.7%

11.4%

-70.7%

V

Sell

12.05.2011

79010.61

22.98

2.99

8.6

0.9%

44.6%

19.3%

-1.5%

TSLA

Sell

12.05.2011

3237.47

0

11.01

16.09

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

-0.4%

TD

Buy

12.06.2011

65048.6

11.44

1.4

3.59

3.7%

2.7%

9.7%

0.0%

CHK

Buy

12.06.2011

16257.6

13.26

1

1.49

1.4%

0.0%

7.3%

9.3%

EOG

Buy

12.06.2011

27893.19

27.02

2.23

3.05

0.6%

-34.2%

44.4%

10.8%

IP

Buy

12.06.2011

12355.97

9.09

1.67

0.47

3.7%

1.2%

5.5%

-7.1%

CRZO

Buy

12.06.2011

1142.5

0

2.29

6.26

0.0%

-7.9%

28.0%

2.9%

MMM

Buy

12.06.2011

57609.05

13.98

3.4

1.97

2.7%

6.9%

11.2%

-35.0%

LLY

Buy

12.06.2011

45465.24

9.37

3.02

1.86

5.0%

20.1%

-5.6%

-25.7%

GE

Buy

12.06.2011

177785.8

13.8

1.43

1.18

3.6%

-6.7%

13.4%

9.3%

NVLS

Buy

12.06.2011

2479.15

10.82

2.56

1.7

0.0%

28.5%

10.2%

-80.6%

AZO

Buy

12.06.2011

12968.52

16.1

0

1.58

0.0%

21.0%

15.0%

-60.7%

DMND

Sell

12.06.2011

894.75

18.27

1.97

0.93

0.4%

36.5%

16.8%

2.1%

MCP

Sell

12.06.2011

2451.56

31.42

2.86

8.58

0.0%

0.0%

27.5%

-94.8%

RY

Sell

12.06.2011

69946.48

11.13

1.69

3.76

4.4%

3.7%

12.2%

0.0%

KOG

Buy

12.07.2011

1364.52

54

3.73

19.23

0.0%

0.0%

35.0%

67.7%

BBEP

Buy

12.07.2011

1040.28

20.25

0.75

2.45

9.9%

-19.2%

3.0%

-48.2%

KMP

Buy

12.07.2011

26358.53

494.69

3.45

3.24

5.9%

-2.3%

7.9%

0.0%

AEP

Buy

12.07.2011

19186.01

12.19

1.3

1.27

4.7%

-0.8%

4.3%

0.0%

RSO

Buy

12.07.2011

431.51

14.63

0.98

3.75

18.0%

-24.5%

5.0%

11.8%

EROC

Buy

12.07.2011

1398.49

54.45

1.3

1.41

7.4%

-20.2%

20.0%

-0.7%

ETP

Buy

12.07.2011

9887.41

32.87

1.81

1.52

8.1%

-13.8%

16.7%

0.0%

CLR

Buy

12.07.2011

12572.24

25.8

5.2

7.73

0.0%

-4.1%

12.8%

0.2%

EOG

Buy

12.07.2011

27893.19

27.02

2.23

3.05

0.6%

-34.2%

44.4%

10.8%

LTD

Buy

12.07.2011

12099.97

14.08

23.33

1.17

2.0%

8.3%

16.7%

-4.5%

CAT

Buy

12.07.2011

62056.12

14.67

4.38

1.11

1.9%

0.5%

23.0%

-5.9%

USB

Buy

12.07.2011

50171.84

11.53

1.51

4.01

1.9%

-6.4%

8.8%

-1.7%

NJR

Sell

12.07.2011

1972.19

19.5

2.54

0.66

3.2%

-14.3%

3.5%

-12.3%

GT

Sell

12.07.2011

3555.44

34.64

2.37

0.16

0.0%

-5.5%

27.3%

69.3%

CHS

Sell

12.07.2011

1822.68

13.94

1.8

0.87

1.8%

-24.9%

15.0%

21.0%

ACI

Sell

12.07.2011

3288.57

19.67

0.93

0.84

2.8%

41.2%

35.7%

30.9%

BWLD

Sell

12.07.2011

1146.03

24.48

3.79

1.57

0.0%

32.8%

20.5%

-29.9%

ZIP

Sell

12.07.2011

561.2

0

2.62

2.43

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

JNJ

Buy

12.08.2011

176221.8

15.74

2.87

2.74

3.5%

7.4%

6.2%

1.2%

NG

Buy

12.08.2011

2602.16

0

10.24

5782.57

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

GIS

Buy

12.08.2011

26008.65

15.49

4.01

1.71

3.0%

13.3%

8.2%

10.4%

UL

Buy

12.08.2011

95554.28

16.4

4.59

1.58

3.7%

6.2%

8.3%

0.0%

SKT

Buy

12.08.2011

2445.52

58.77

5.29

8.11

2.8%

25.9%

6.9%

2.6%

INTC

Buy

12.08.2011

127350.9

10.83

2.78

2.47

3.4%

7.5%

10.7%

9.3%

COST

Buy

12.08.2011

36563.43

25.57

3.05

0.41

1.1%

7.5%

13.4%

-1.3%

EPD

Buy

12.08.2011

39819.78

24.2

3.5

0.94

5.4%

4.6%

7.6%

18.7%

MCD

Buy

12.08.2011

100306.3

19.22

7.52

3.8

2.9%

17.8%

10.5%

-4.7%

NKE

Buy

12.08.2011

45291.29

21.14

4.58

2.08

1.5%

10.7%

11.1%

1.9%

TEA

Sell

12.08.2011

649.53

44.71

11.64

4.3

0.0%

0.0%

31.7%

61.4%

SLE

Sell

12.08.2011

11129.54

50.92

6.93

1.25

2.4%

68.0%

8.4%

13.1%

MU

Sell

12.08.2011

5816.79

36.81

0.68

0.66

0.0%

-21.9%

9.3%

44.4%

LPS

Sell

12.08.2011

1584.66

7.89

3.14

0.71

2.1%

10.0%

10.0%

46.7%

FCX

Sell

12.08.2011

37660.46

6.95

2.45

1.69

2.5%

14.4%

6.8%

-6.0%

LULU

Sell

12.08.2011

6851.17

41.93

13.1

7.83

0.0%

141.4%

28.1%

-9.7%

WYNN

Sell

12.08.2011

13853.07

25.9

5.38

2.68

1.8%

3.4%

37.9%

-21.1%

TWI

Sell

12.08.2011

924.6

59.22

2.37

0.7

0.1%

28.1%

26.0%

51.2%

ACN

Buy

12.09.2011

41208.55

17.27

10.47

1.51

2.3%

16.4%

10.9%

-0.3%

AGNC

Buy

12.09.2011

5306.62

4.3

1.07

6.19

19.4%

28.3%

2.0%

2.3%

AVT

Buy

12.09.2011

4554.96

7.09

1.17

0.17

0.0%

25.5%

13.9%

36.3%

BRCM

Buy

12.09.2011

16326.31

18.25

2.65

2.17

1.2%

24.7%

15.6%

-6.2%

COST

Buy

12.09.2011

36563.43

25.57

3.05

0.41

1.1%

7.5%

13.4%

-1.3%

DE

Buy

12.09.2011

32426.49

11.83

4.77

1.01

2.1%

16.6%

12.2%

-52.9%

ERTS

Buy

12.09.2011

7288.15

0

2.87

1.89

0.0%

-13.8%

19.0%

-3.2%

ETN

Buy

12.09.2011

14821.77

12.02

1.92

0.95

3.1%

1.5%

10.8%

-1.2%

FDX

Buy

12.09.2011

26405.39

17.23

1.68

0.65

0.6%

-4.7%

15.8%

7.7%

GE

Buy

12.09.2011

177785.8

13.8

1.43

1.18

3.6%

-6.7%

13.4%

9.3%

HON

Buy

12.09.2011

41769

16.88

3.58

1.16

2.8%

7.1%

14.9%

107.1%

MWW

Buy

12.09.2011

1026.78

22.77

0.82

0.98

0.0%

-37.8%

16.8%

-0.5%

NLY

Buy

12.09.2011

15637.69

8.4

0.98

4.58

14.9%

23.0%

0.8%

7.7%

NS

Buy

12.09.2011

3788.88

17.25

1.39

0.65

8.1%

2.9%

3.9%

2.5%

NSC

Buy

12.09.2011

24801.56

14.41

2.42

2.3

2.3%

5.2%

14.5%

-12.2%

OPK

Buy

12.09.2011

1399.1

0

10.71

38.77

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

31.7%

PIR

Buy

12.09.2011

1515.48

15.04

4.19

1.04

0.0%

-26.7%

10.7%

-90.6%

RHT

Buy

12.09.2011

9584.15

74.18

7.04

9.34

0.0%

5.9%

18.4%

-10.2%

SXCI

Buy

12.09.2011

3596.39

44.72

5.62

0.87

0.0%

32.6%

28.4%

-67.9%

ADBE

Sell

12.09.2011

13764.84

15.32

2.48

3.38

0.0%

4.4%

11.2%

-16.9%

BBY

Sell

12.09.2011

10184.25

9.46

1.69

0.2

2.3%

6.3%

8.7%

4.8%

CSX

Sell

12.09.2011

22384.93

13.16

2.71

1.93

2.3%

20.7%

9.5%

-34.4%

DRI

Sell

12.09.2011

5695.94

12.75

2.99

0.75

4.0%

8.8%

12.4%

8.9%

FNSR

Sell

12.09.2011

1506.21

29.63

2.06

1.55

0.0%

12.7%

22.8%

31.3%

HUN

Sell

12.09.2011

2434.87

13.65

1.34

0.22

3.9%

7.7%

7.4%

13.2%

MOS

Sell

12.09.2011

22560.29

8.23

1.85

2.08

0.4%

0.0%

15.1%

5.5%

PSMT

Sell

12.09.2011

2000.31

32.32

5.33

1.17

0.9%

47.6%

12.0%

-2.5%

RIMM

Sell

12.09.2011

8627.67

3.01

0.86

0.43

0.0%

58.3%

8.0%

0.0%

SKUL

Sell

12.09.2011

366.52

0

3.98

1.72

0.0%

0.0%

21.3%

0.0%

TWIN

Sell

12.09.2011

441.77

17.25

3.05

1.34

0.8%

6.2%

13.0%

0.1%

USG

Sell

12.09.2011

1044.68

0

2.79

0.35

0.0%

-69.0%

49.1%

-7.1%

In 2008, my MBA classmates and I investigated Jim Cramer’s recommendations and found the following:

  • Buying Cramer’s picks after he recommended them underperformed the broader stock market. There seems to be a “bump” relative to the market for his picks that has happened faster than you could conceivably trade.
  • Cramer’s mid cap and large cap picks did not outperform the market, and “shorting the bump” would be an interesting strategy for high-frequency traders.
  • Cramer’s small and micro cap picks do a little better than small cap indexes after he discusses them.
  • Cramer might be trying to do the impossible by making daily stock picks. He provides entertainment, relays business news, interviews executives, and displays an impressive, encyclopedic knowledge of publicly-traded companies. He is like Stone Phillips, Oprah, and Bloomberg News combined. However, these talents did not translate into alpha for his mid and large cap picks.

Exploiting any persistence of these effects is fairly simple. Contrarians should review large and midcap stocks recommended by Cramer and consider whether there is merit to taking the opposite positions. From this week’s large and midcap picks, KMP, SKT, RHT, ACI, FCX, BBY and RIMM are challenged.

What could an investor expect from these three picks? We can model total returns over a three year holding period for each of these stocks. (I use a 3-year holding period since above-average growth estimates are not reliable further out.) Giving Cramer the benefit of the doubt for buy recommendations, the stock is assumed to be sold at a generous growth stock price to earnings multiple of 17 and the maximum of historical and analyst estimate values for earnings growth are assumed.

On the contrary, we will use more conservative values to give Cramer the benefit of the doubt for his sell recommendations. For his sell calls, a bargain value stock price to earnings multiple of 10 and the minimum of historical and analyst estimates values for earnings growth are assumed. These assumptions are used to project an annualized total return over the next three years and a terminal price to earnings ratios, that is, price paid today divided by earnings at the end of the holding period for each stock:

3 Years Growth

Ticker

Cramer

g (past)

g (future)

Terminal P/E

Annualized Return

KMP

Buy

-2.3%

7.9%

394.2

-64.3%

SKT

Buy

25.9%

6.9%

29.4

-15.9%

RHT

Buy

5.9%

18.4%

44.67

-27.5%

ACI

Sell

41.2%

35.7%

7.88

9.3%

FCX

Sell

14.4%

6.8%

5.71

21.5%

BBY

Sell

6.3%

8.7%

7.88

9.1%

RIMM

Sell

58.3%

8.0%

2.39

61.2%

Even with assumptions that would favor Cramer’s sell recommendations for Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE:ACI), Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE:BBY), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX), and Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), these sell recommendations cannot be supported given attractive current valuations. Even terrible scenarios look good for these stocks: holding these stocks through three years with the lesser of historical growth or analyst growth estimates and then selling at a bargain 10 price-to-earnings multiple would reap between 9.1% and 61.2% annualized returns.

In addition, Cramer’s buy recommendations for Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE:KMP), Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (NYSE:SKT), and Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE:RHT) are not supported even by a rosy scenario. Buyers of these stocks who enjoy the greater of historical growth and analyst growth estimates and are able to sell at a growth stock P/E ratio would still suffer negative total returns. Regardless of conceivable growth levels, the price is just too high for these stocks. Intrepid contrarians should research KMP, SKT, and RHT as a sell picks, rather than trusting Cramer’s buy recommendation on each stock.

Bear in mind that challenging the consensus requires a strong will. In addition to countering Cramer, contrarians have to shut out the allure of stories and other distractions in order to focus on valuation.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.This article was written to provide investor information and education, and should not be construed as a guarantee or investment advice. I have no idea what your individual risk, time-horizon, and tax circumstances are: please seek the personal advice of a financial planner. This article uses third-party data and may contain approximations and errors. Please check estimates and data for yourself before investing. Moreover, this research does NOT constitute a guarantee.

Source: Countering Cramer's Picks From Last Week