The markets are not convinced that the European summit provided a significant enough solution to resolve the financial crisis within the eurozone. Europe's situation is a very complex one. With each passing day we see the markets become more pessimistic, believing that a solution can't be found. The S&P 500 has declined by more than 3% since Monday -- with relatively low volume, which means investors may be sitting on the sidelines and watching to see what happens. I believe this week presents additional risk, because of a potential downgrade. As such, investors should only trade long-term stocks. At this point, we are all worried about the results of a credit downgrade in Europe, and its implications in U.S. markets. I believe a downgrade is inevitable, and will occur sooner rather than later, resulting in heavy selling within the markets. Investors should use this time to observe stocks that have trended lower but will most likely trade higher once the market reverses. Therefore I have listed 6 stocks that investors should watch and possibly buy during the next week.
Basic Energy Services (BAS) is one of the fastest growing energy stocks within the sector. However, its stock's declined by 11% over the last three days, with nearly 5% coming on Wednesday. The stock is trading $2 below its 50 day moving average and doesn't appear to be trading near any levels of resistance. In fact, the stock doesn't have strong resistance except for when reaches $20. Then it has a hard time trading above, or trading below, $20 once it reaches this range.
BAS is one of the more volatile stocks in the market, with a beta of 2.29. I believe that if the market trades lower on Thursday or Friday, which I expect it will, then this stock will drop much lower. However, the stock has the ability to reverse very quickly and post large gains. I feel comfortable in purchasing this stock around $15.50, and I believe that if the stock reaches $15.50 it will return large gains. I expect BAS to be one of the best performing stocks of 2012, but for now, you can capitalize on quick gains by being patient and buying this stock under $16.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) has significantly outperformed the market over the last six months, with a 25% gain. It trades with a beta of 2.10, but usually posts smaller losses and larger gains. However, the stock is trading about $4 off its 50 day moving average, and is now trading at significant resistance. JAZZ is one of my favorite biotech stocks, and I believe it could be purchased today and return incredible gains by next year. Yet if you are looking for short-term gains, then recent history confirms that it's traded with resistance at $35 and always reverses to post gains. The stock is now trading at $34.68, which would make a great buy for quick gains. However, if the market trends lower this stock may slide lower, which will return better gains.
Apple (AAPL) has traded with a 15% gain over the last 6 months, but has lost 2% of its value during the last 5 days. The stock is trading $1 below its 20 day MA and is approaching a level at which always returns gains. Apple's been very volatile over the last four months, and is presenting a good opportunity for both short and long-term gains. As you can see, AAPL trades very close to the market. Although its gains are larger, the trend is usually the same. Investors have been somewhat skeptical of its upside potential as of late, despite it breaking all of its own records in sales with the new iPhone 4S. I believe this stock could very likely surpass $600 within one year, but for now it's trending lower. On November 8 the stock was priced at $406 and on December 9 it was priced at $393, despite the market presenting the same valuation. This reflects the recent skepticism surrounding-- what I consider to be-- the best company in the world. I expect the Dow to reach 11,200 if European debt is downgraded, and since AAPL has been quick to fall as of late, I plan to iniate a short-term buy if the stock falls to $360. And I believe that if the stock falls to $360 it could provide a gain of $30 per share, as a short-term gain, when the market reverses.
Sirius XM (SIRI) has traded with the market over the last four months, but has been a little erratic. The stock is currently priced at $1.77 and I believe that by Monday it will be priced to buy. During the last two months I've been playing SIRI on a weekly basis. I'll buy it when it's priced between $1.65 and $1.70 and then I'll sell once it reaches a price between $1.82 and $1.85, for a quick 6% gain. If you look back since the downtrend began in late July, this trend has occurred on 10 occasions. If you look back further, this trend also occurred quite often between February and April, before the stock surpassed this level and traded above $2. I believe this stock will soon break this trend and trade much higher, but for now, it's a quick and easy trend to make some quick profits while the markets are volatile.
Endeavour Silver Corporation (EXK) is very volatile and can trade in a 40% range in a matter of weeks. The stock does trade with the market, however, it reacts more to the price performance of silver and other commodities. The stock's fallen by more than 13% over the last five days, and is now trading at $9.70. Since January of this year the stock's fallen by large margins on several occasions, only to reverse and surpass $11.50 on six occasions. Therefore, at $9.70 the stock would still return gains. Yet, if the market trends lower the stock will most likely fall as well. This would provide even larger gains in a stock with a long history of volatile trading. I am confident in buying at any price under $9 and I will watch and buy the stock if it reaches this level.
Caterpillar (CAT) is one of the top three stocks that move the market on a daily basis. It's now trading with a 5 day loss of 8.5%. CAT is one of the more volatile stocks in the market, yet doesn't trade with any significant resistance. In fact, I would argue that you can't find a measurable trend for CAT because it trades too close to the market. Therefore, its trend is more dependent on the market and the resistance within an index, versus the stock itself. I've already stated that I believe the market will fall because of Europe. Therefore, I believe we can expect CAT to fall as well. CAT should be on your radar because once the market reverses, it will be one of the fastest moving stocks in the market and can post large gains in a short period of time.
Disclosure: I am long CAT.