Earnings Preview: Tibco Software Reports Results Wednesday

| About: TIBCO Software, (TIBX)

Tibco Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TIBX) is anticipated to report earnings after the closing bell on December 21, 2011.

TIBX trades an average of 2.6 million shares per day.

52-Week High: $31.45
52-Week Low: $18.43
Book Value: $4.95
Float Short: 1.76%

Analysts are expecting an improvement of $0.12 in earnings per share compared to last quarter's results of $0.23. Investors will be looking to see a number north of $0.35 per share, based on the earnings estimates.

Relative to the earnings, investors have not been as aggressive accumulating shares, as the current trailing twelve months (ttm) P/E ratio is 40, while the forward P/E ratio is now 31.1. It appears based on the lower PE that investors are pricing in less growth.

After a few tough days, including a break down below the 200 day moving average, Tibco is moving higher today. The moving averages are mixed, without much direction. Cloud computing is hot, and even though takeover talk has dissipated recently, it doesn't mean Tibco will not come into play ever again. With the PE as high as it is, it may be a good idea to take a look at put options as a hedge against the share price falling further.

For the same fiscal period year-over-year, revenue has improved to $754.01 million for 2010 vs. $621.39 million for 2009. The bottom line has rising earnings year-over-year of $78.09 million for 2010 vs. $62.30 million for 2009.The company's earnings before interest and taxes are rising with an EBIT year-over-year of $115.16 million for 2010 vs. $88.60 million for 2009. Rising revenue along with rising earnings is a very good sign, and what we want to see with our companies. Be sure to check the margins to make sure that the bottom line is keeping up with the top line.

Here is a look at the fiscal year revenue:

paid2trade.com revenue gross bar chart for TIBX

Gross reported revenue compared to the mean estimate (rounded):

Fiscal Quarter Ending Month-Year Revenue Estimates Actual $ Difference Difference %
Aug-11 $ 219.91 M $ 228.97 M $ 9.06 M 4.12%
May-11 $ 198.47 M $ 216.42 M $ 17.95 M 9.04%
Feb-11 $ 182.70 M $ 185.34 M $ 2.64 M 1.44%
Nov-10 $ 228.44 M $ 241.22 M $ 12.78 M 5.59%
Aug-10 $ 175.85 M $ 184.48 M $ 8.63 M 4.91%

M = millions, B = billion.
Differences are rounded.
Some one-time items are often excluded in reported EPS.

paid2trade.com Quarterly Estimates And Actual EPS results TIBX

Reported earnings per share compared to the mean estimate. Differences are rounded.

The total short interest number of shares for TIBX:

paid2trade.com short interest tool. The total short interest number of shares for TIBX

The number of days to cover short interest based on average daily trading volume for TIBX:

paid2trade.com number of days to cover short interest based on average daily trading volume for TIBX

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I use a proprietary blend of technical analysis, financial crowd behavior, and fundamentals in my short-term trades, and while not totally the same in longer swing trades to investments, the concepts used are similar. You may want to use this article as a starting point of your own research with your financial planner. I use Seeking Alpha, Edgar Online, and Yahoo Finance for most of my data. I use the confirmed symbols from earnings.com that I believe to be of the most interest.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.