Bed Bath & Beyond Slightly Favors Shorts Following Earnings-Driven After-Hours Moves

| About: Bed Bath (BBBY)

Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) is due with its Q3 report in tonight's after-hours session, and historically the home decor retailer has a slight tendency to add to its earnings-driven after-hours declines in next-day trade.

In 15 quarters where BBBY recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline, the stock headed deeper in the red the following day in eight of those quarters, or about 53% of the time. It's a slim advantage historically: enough to watch where potential ceiling levels develop tonight but not enough to get overly aggressive.

On the long side, BBBY has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 16 quarters tracked over the last eight years in our MidnightTrader database. The stock has eight times added to its evening gains the following day, or about 50% of the time; seven times reversed direction the next day; and in one event it closed the after-hours session flat and followed that move with a next-day gain. There's some room for longs to play off any floor level support that may form tonight.

BBBY is expected to report a Q3 profit of $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.35 billion, according to Thomson Reuters.

Here's the historical data:

  • On Sept. 21, 2011, BBBY gained 1.3% in night trade after beating Q2 EPS estimates, meeting on sales, and setting guidance that straddled the Street view. The stock cut its upside the next day, ending the Sept. 22 regular session up 0.6%.
  • On June 22, 2011, BBBY advanced 2.1% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 estimates and setting Q2 guidance in-line to below expectations. The stock firmed higher the next day, rising 5.3% by the regular session close on June 23.
  • On April 6, 2011, BBBY leaped 9.2% in evening trade after beating Q4 expectations and setting in line guidance. The stock firmed even higher the next day, advancing 10.4% by the close on April 7.
  • On Dec. 22, 2010, BBBY gained 5.4% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 estimates, setting bullish guidance and approving a stock buyback plan. The gain narrowed slightly the next day, closing the Dec. 23 regular session up 5.1%.
  • On Sept. 22, 2010, BBBY advanced 4.6% in evening action after topping Q2 expectations and raising its earnings growth goal. The stock cut its upside the following day, closing the Sept. 23 regular session up 3.2%.
  • On June 23, 2010, BBBY declined 5.5% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 expectations and setting its Q2 earnings view below Street estimates. The stock added slightly to its downside the next day, closing the June 24 regular session down 5.6%.
  • On April 7, 2010, BBBY advanced 3.9% in evening trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It added slightly to its upside the following day, closing the April 8 regular session up 4%.
  • On Jan. 6, 2010, BBBY surged 7.8% in after-hours action after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It narrowed its upside the following day, closing the Jan. 7 regular session up 6.9%.
  • On Sept. 23, 2009, BBBY declined 2.6% in after-hours trade despite beating Q2 expectationas. The stock added ot its downside the following day, ending the Sept. 24 regular session down 3.2%.
  • On June 24, 2009, the stock advanced 5.7% in extended-hours trading after BBBY beat with Q1 results. The gain swelled to 9.4% the next day.
  • On April 7, 2009, BBBY surged 13.7% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results. The stock leaped higher the following day, rising 24.2% by the closing bell on April 8.
  • On Jan. 7, 2009, BBBY dipped 0.8% in evening trade despite beating earnings expectations. The stock turned north the following day, rising 4.5% in the Jan. 8 regular session.
  • On Sept. 24, 2008, BBBY ended the after-hours session flat after meeting Q2 expectations. The stock gained 4.8% in the Sept. 25 regular session.
  • On June 25, 2008, the stock jumped 8.5% in post-bell trading after BBBY beat with Q1 results. The gain was nearly halved the next day, to 4.2%.
  • On April 9, 2008, the stock fell 5.6% during evening trading after BBBY just beats with Q4 EPS though revenue shy. Shares rebounded to end up a slim 0.6% the next day.
  • On Jan, 3, 2008, BBBY fell 6.2% during evening trading after the company reported results above the year-ago period but guided in a range that appeared to be below the Street mean, although direct comparision wasn't clear. The share loss was trimmed to 4.4% the next day.
  • On Sept. 26, 2007, BBBY advanced 1.5% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 sales expectations and approviing a $1 billion stock buyback. It saw its upside evaporate the next day, closing the Sept. 27 regular session down 1.1%.
  • On June 27, 2007, BBBY dropped 5.2% in after hours despite the company's topping Q1 estimates. Shares managed to claw back some of those losses but still ended the next day session down 3.9%.
  • On April 11, 2007, BBBY lost 2% in night trade despite topping Q4 expectations. Shares recovered slightly the next day, ending the regular session down 1.8%.
  • On Dec. 20, the stock was down 2.3% in the evening hours despite topping year-ago results and setting a share buyback. The stock fell 3.5% the next day.
  • On Sept. 20, 2006, the stock fell 1.4% in the evening hours in a muted reaction to results that matched the Street view. Shares reversed to close up 3.4% the next day.
  • On June 21, 2006, shares fell 2.5% in the evening session after the company says Q1 sales were $1.396 billion, more than the FC mean for $1.394 billion. EPS were $0.33, including stock-based compensation. The FC mean, ex-items, was $0.35 per share. The stock fell 6% the next day.
  • On April 5, 2006, the stock advanced 5.8% in night trading after the company reported ahead of the Street with its Q4 results and guided in line to higher for the coming quarter and the full year. The gain expanded to 6.5% the next day.
  • On Dec. 21, 2005, shares dropped 6.2% after the company reported EPS in line with the Street's view but sales shy of expectations. The loss expanded to 12% the next day.
  • BBBY advanced 3.7% the night of Sept. 21, 2005 after the company topped earnings expectations by a penny. It firmed even higher on Sept. 22, rising 6% by the bell-to-bell close.
  • BBBY declined 3.6% the night of June 22, 2005 after beating the then-current Street estimates. Sellers continued to dog the issue on June 23, pressuring it down 5.4% by that day's close.
  • BBBY jumped 6.1% the night of April 6, 2005 after the company blew past Q4 earnings expectations. The stock surged higher on April 7, adding 11% by the closing bell.
  • On Dec. 15, 2004, BBBY added 3.7% in night play after the company beat expectations. Traders slashed the upside the following day, and the stock ended the Dec. 16 regular session down 1.7%.
  • Back on Sept. 22, 2004 BBBY lost 4% in the evening session after it matched the Street view. It added to its downside the following day, losing 5% by the closing bell.
  • On June 23 of 2004, BBBY reported in-line sales results and better-than-expected earnings, but was still hit with selling, losing 1.7% in after-hours trade. It narrowed its downside on June 24, eking out a 0.2% decline by the bell-to-bell close.
  • On March 31, 2004 BBBY edged down 0.5% in night trade after the company beat expectations by three cents. Despite the strong result, the stock continued its negative momentum on April 1, sliding 3.2% by the close.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Tagged: , Home Furnishing Stores, Earnings
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