Temporary Employment Bucks Historical Downtrend

by: Todd Sullivan

Every year, temporary employment peaks in November and then begins a swift slide through the end of the year. Except for this year. The past two weeks the index has rebounded from its Turkey Week low to year-high levels, and so far, has stayed there. The previous 5 years the index has fallen steeply after Turkey Day.

Given what we saw last week in the large decline in first-time unemployment claims, when we couple that data with this, we very well may be looking at some significant employment gains coming in Q1 2012.

Capture406 624x239 Temp Employment Breaks Historical Trend

Here is the multi-year comp another way:

Capture407 624x313 Temp Employment Breaks Historical Trend

Now, it is possible the data collapse happens this week. Even if it does, the stronger-than-normal year-end data bodes well for the beginning of 2012. If it doesn’t collapse like it should, it bodes very, very well indeed.

Disclaimer: The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned.