Every year, temporary employment peaks in November and then begins a swift slide through the end of the year. Except for this year. The past two weeks the index has rebounded from its Turkey Week low to year-high levels, and so far, has stayed there. The previous 5 years the index has fallen steeply after Turkey Day.
Given what we saw last week in the large decline in first-time unemployment claims, when we couple that data with this, we very well may be looking at some significant employment gains coming in Q1 2012.
Here is the multi-year comp another way:
Now, it is possible the data collapse happens this week. Even if it does, the stronger-than-normal year-end data bodes well for the beginning of 2012. If it doesn’t collapse like it should, it bodes very, very well indeed.
Disclaimer: The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned.