The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 4,000 decline was from an upward adjustment of 2,000 for the previous week. The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average came in at 380,250, the sixth week below 400K for the for-week MA after 29 consecutive weeks above that benchmark. Here is the official statement from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending December 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 368,000. The four-week moving average was 380,250, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average of 388,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8% for the week ending December 10, a decrease of a 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 10, was 3,546,000, a decrease of 79,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,625,000. The four-week moving average was 3,631,750, a decrease of 40,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,671,750.
Today's seasonally adjusted number came in well below the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 380K.
As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the four-week moving average (shown in the callouts) is a more useful number than the weekly data.
Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author's bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the four-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).
Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, a 52-week moving average gives a better sense of the long-term trends.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides an overview on seasonal adjustment here (scroll down about half way down). For more specific insight into the adjustment method, check out the BLS Seasonal Adjustment Files and Documentation.
For a broader view of unemployment, see the latest update in my monthly series Unemployment and the Market Since 1948.
