Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday December 22.
Just because a stock has been hammered, that doesn't mean it is cheap. Take Best Buy (BBY), hhgregg (HGG) and Radioshack (RSH); these stocks have fallen 32%, 35% and 48% over the past year. Cramer would buy none of these stocks, because they are broken companies, not just broken stocks. These brick and mortar retailers are facing stiff competition from online retailers like Amazon (AMZN), and are in long-term decline. hhgregg is the most promising of the three, with its regional to national story, and the company beat earnings estimates, but the spike in earnings was driven by promotions for which it had to slash prices to move its merchandise. As a result, gross margins were down 184 basis points. Best Buy (BBY) has strong cash flow, but has been squandering its money on artificial buybacks that serve only to temporarily prop up stock prices. Domestic sales per square foot fell 10% from their peak in 2006, and net income is down 40% for the same period. Radio Shack is the worst of the bunch. Although it has doubled its dividend and has discussed restructuring, Cramer doesn't think its plans will pan out and doubts the dividend is sustainable. RSH trades at a multiple of 8, but has only a 3% growth rate. Cramer would sell all three of these stocks.
Cramer took some calls:
Amazon is not strong short-term because the company needs to invest in its business, but "long-term, it doesn't get any better than this."
With real estate showing early signs of turning around, and retail REITs like Tanger Factory Outlet (SKT) and Simon Property Group (SPG) at or around their 52 week highs, Cramer would play the trend with iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR). Cramer usually prefers individual stocks to ETFs, but in this case, IYR is an exception. Simon and Tanger are great REITs, but they are so close to their highs, that it is not the time to buy the individual stocks. The IYR has a diversified mosiac of real estate holdings, including exposure to office space, data centers and wireless towers. American Tower (AMT) is a major holding as is Annaly Capital Management (NLY), a favorite REIT with a 13.5% yield. Although the dividend was cut recently, NLY's stock didn't suffer, because its yield is so high. Cramer would buy IYR instead of waiting for good REITs like SPG to decline in price.
Hansen Natural (HANS)
High-multiple growth stocks have been hammered of late, except for Hansen Natural (HANS), the maker of energy drinks and naturally flavored sodas. While other momentum stocks have been pummeled, Hansen is just off its 52 week high. Will Hansen keep going higher? According to the chart, the stock has been moving off its 100 day moving average; every time it hits the floor it bounces back up. If it moves out of a bullish triangle, Hansen could be heading higher with no resistance. However, John Roche thinks the chart shows signs the stock is slowing, and Dan Fitzpatrick, technical analysts at TheStreet.com, notes that the stock has been selling off on high volume; this indicates institutional selling. In addition, each of Hansen's recent rallies has been successively weaker and it might be hitting a top.
What does Cramer think? Hansen is the last momentum stock that has any real momentum, because it represents a consumer staple and a combination of safety and growth. However, he would not buy Hansen here, since its multiple is 26 compared to its 14% growth rate. If it falls, sellers will show it no mercy. Operating margins have been a problem, and Hansen has third party distribution, which means lower margins and less control. U.S. demand for energy drinks has tapered off, and while international sales produce 20% of Hansen's revenue, the company doesn't yet have the infrastructure to expand further on the international scene. While Hansen has the top energy drink, it is facing competition in the industry. Now is not the time to buy Hansen.
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