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One of the things that make the NFL America’s most popular sport is its parity. Last season’s 4-12 team with the help of a high draft pick, an easier schedule and some free agents can be this year’s 11-5 surprise story. Stocks demonstrate some of the same traits. This year’s big loser can make you lots of money next year. With that in mind, here are five stocks that had a terrible year in 2011 but could be bounce back winners in 2012.

Tenneco (NYSE:TEN) –

Tenneco Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of emission control and ride control products and systems for commercial and specialty vehicle applications. (Business description from Yahoo Finance)

Current Forward P/E: 8.7

5 Year Average Forward P/E: 18.2

Performance versus S&P YTD: -27.63%

EPS Trend line 2010: $1.57 2011: $2.68 2012: $3.46

Current Price: $29.97

Consensus Analysts’ Price Target: $45

S&P Rating: 4 Stars

Key value observations on Tenneco:

· TEN is dirt cheap at 25% of sales and a five year projected PEG of just .36.

· Tenneco is some 50% under consensus price target of $45. Credit Suisse has a $53 price target on TEN.

· Tenneco is poised to have rapid EPS growth over the next couple of years (See EPS Trend line above). It also is projected to grow revenues by over 12% in 2012 after 20% plus growth in 2011.

Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) –

Lam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipments used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company offers etch products that remove portions of various films from the wafer in the creation of semiconductor devices. (Business description from Yahoo Finance)

Current Forward P/E: 9.6

5 Year Average Forward P/E: 21.2

Performance versus S&P YTD: -29.11%

EPS Trend line 2010: $5.85 2011: $1.90 2012: $3.83

Current Price: $36.93

Consensus Analysts’ Price Target: $47

S&P Rating: 4 Stars

Key value observations on LRCX:

· Earnings estimates for 2011 and 2012 have crept up in the last month.

· It appears to be building a technical base at current price levels (See chart).

click to enlarge

· Lam Research is selling at the bottom of its five year valuation range based on P/B, P/S, P/E and P/CF.

MetLife (NYSE:MET) –

MetLife, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides insurance, annuities, and employee benefit programs primarily in the United States, Japan, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. (Business description from Yahoo Finance)

Current Forward P/E: 6.2

5 Year Average Forward P/E: 9.2

Performance versus S&P YTD: -30.44%

EPS Trend line 2010: $4.38 2011: $4.91 2012: $5.05

Current Price: $31.10

Consensus Analysts’ Price Target: $45

S&P Rating: 4 Stars

Key value observations on MET:

· MetLife yields a decent 2.4% and has an A- rated balance sheet.

· MET has a five year projected PEG of just .64 and is priced at 54% of book value.

· Analysts are too conservative on MET’s earnings power. The company has easily beat earnings estimates each of the last four quarters.

MetroPCS (PCS) –

MetroPCS Communications, Inc., a wireless telecommunications carrier, together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless broadband mobile services in the United States. (Business description from Yahoo Finance)

Current Forward P/E: 9.3

5 Year Average Forward P/E: 25.1

Performance versus S&P YTD: -35.70%

EPS Trend line 2010: $.71 2011: $.74 2012: $.88

Current Price: $8.17

Consensus Analysts’ Price Target: $12

S&P Rating: 4 Stars

Key value observations on PCS:

· PCS is selling at the very bottom of its five year valuation range based on P/E, P/S, P/CF and P/B.

· A potential spectrum purchase from Clearwire (CLWR) could be a game changer.

· Now that AT&T’s (NYSE:T) purchase of T-Mobile has been called off, a smaller player like PCS could become an acquisition target.

Hartford Financial (NYSE:HIG) –

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services in the United States and internationally. (Business description from Yahoo Finance)

Current Forward P/E: 5.0

5 Year Average Forward P/E: 6.8

Performance versus S&P YTD: -36.96%

EPS Trend line 2010: $2.89 2011: $1.84 2012: $3.36

Current Price: $16.80

Consensus Analysts’ Price Target: $24

S&P Rating: 4 Stars

Key value observations on Hartford Financial:

· HIG is selling near the bottom of its five year valuation range based on P/S, P/CF and P/B.

· Hartford is selling at just 33% of book value and yields 2.5%.

· Credit Suisse has an “outperform” rating and a $27 price target on HIG. HIG also authorized a $500mm stock buyback program it plans to complete over the next six months.

Disclosure: I am long MET.