U.S. Home Prices Continue The Seasonal Trend

by: The Fundamental Analyst

US Home Prices fell 1.2% in October according to the latest 20 city Case-Shiller Home Price index for October (actually an average of Aug, Sep Oct). These are the non-seasonally adjusted numbers that Shiller himself prefers to use. 19 out of 20 cities recorded price declines with a 0.3% rise in Phoenix the only exception. On a seasonally adjusted basis US home prices hit a new post bubble low whilst on a non-seasonally adjusted basis prices remain just 1.9% above the post bubble lows of March 2011.

As can seen above, the trend into October is following approximately the same pattern as last year meaning that you can expect to see month on month price declines all the way to March next year. As stated above seasonally adjusted US home prices are already at new post bubble lows and the non-seasonally adjusted data will show the same in a few months time.