Cramer's Mad Money - 10 Bearish Myths Of 2011 (1/3/12)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday January 3.

10 Bearish Myths: McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEARCA:FXE), Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Molycorp (MCP), Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD), Bristol Myers (NYSE:BMY)

On a day when the Dow rose 180 points, Cramer discussed the top 10 bearish myths of 2011.

1. The U.S. would be one of the worst performing markets. The Dow was up 5.5%, led by McDonald's (MCD) up 30%, IBM, rallying 25% and Pfizer (PFE) up 24%. All of these stocks performed well in spite of having significant European exposure.

2. The dollar was going to go down. The dollar index started 2011 at 79 and finished at 80.

3. Interest rates had to go higher. "Buying U.S. treasurys in 2011 was the trade of a lifetime," Cramer said.

4. Oil trades with other commodities. As commodities declined, oil still went higher.

5. Our natural gas reserves are understated.

6. Gold peaked when we headed down. While gold didn't finish the year at its high, the GLD ETF (GLD) gained 10% for the year.

7. The euro is falling apart. Actually, FXE finished 2011 where it started.

8. Big pharma is dead. Pfizer was one of the top performers of the Dow. Eli Lilly (LLY) rose 25% and Bristol Myers (BMY) zoomed 40%.

9. The Consumer is not spending. Consumer spending actually has been strong.

10. The Dogs of the Dow are the place to be. Alcoa (AA), Bank of America (BAC) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) are all performing badly.

Cramer took some calls:

Molycorp (MCP) is not a buy.

Sears Holdings (SHLD) is not worth picking up at its low level.

Starbucks (SBUX) has been a strong performer and is "good to go."

Verizon (NYSE:VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T), Sprint (NYSE:S), Merck (NYSE:MRK), T-Mobile (OTCQX:DTEGY)

With the Dow Jones finishing 2011 up 5.5%, Cramer launched a week-long series "Diamonds of the Dow," to discuss Dow stocks he thinks will be major winners in 2012. When it comes to high-yielders, Pfizer has been a top performer, but may be too expensive to buy. Cramer likes Merck (MRK), but it doesn't have the earnings momentum of other stocks. Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) are high-yielding Dow stocks that form a virtual wireless duopoly, now that the proposed merger between AT&T and T-Mobile (OTCQX:DTEGY) has been shelved. Even after the deal was canceled, AT&T's stock rose higher, although it closed 2011 up only 2.9% compared to Verizon's 12% rise. However, this means that AT&T has more upside, and Cramer thinks the stock will play catch-up in 2012.

AT&T trades at a multiple of 12.3 compared to Verizon's multiple of 15.7. AT&T announced its 28th consecutive annual dividend boost of 2.3%, and it now yields 5.8%. Subscriptions to AT&T's service are increasing as consumers want technology that will allow them to talk and surf the web simultaneously. Its wireline business is growing. AT&T is Cramer's pick for 2012.

Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG), Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG), Enerplus Corporation (NYSE:ERF), Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK), American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP), First Energy (NYSE:FE)

Cramer compared two top-performing S&P stocks of 2011 to see which is the better one to buy. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), which makes the DaVinci device to perform robotic surgery and Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), an oil and gas exploration company with significant assets in the Eagle Ford and Marcellus shales. Both have shown impressive gains, but COG is Cramer's pick. He compared the stocks according to the following metrics:

1. PEG ratio: looking at the price to earnings ratio divided by the growth rate, COG has a PEG ratio of 0.9 and ISRG's PEG ratio is 1.7. ISRG's ratio is approaching 2, which makes it more pricey. The market for DaVinci machines might become saturated. On the other hand, COG is radically growing production.

2. Takeout potential. ISRG has an $18 billion market cap, and many companies would not be able to afford to buy it. COG, however, has an $8 billion market cap with tremendous assets, and resembles many other oil and gas companies that have been taken over.

3. Dividends. Both have negligible yields, since they are growth stories and tend to re-invest their profits, but ISRG wins out over COG as the stock most likely to increase its yield.

In spite of ISRG's more promising dividend, Cramer prefers COG.

Cramer took some calls:

Enerplus (ERF) is a stock Cramer likes but he prefers Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE:ETP).

Utilities have been a strong sector. Cramer would consider picking up Duke Energy (DUK), First Energy (FE) or American Electric Power (AEP) on recent declines.


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