As part of our process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the true intrinsic worth of companies. In Ancestry.com's (ACOM) case, we think the company is undervalued at this time. Our fair value is $41 per share, and we make our report on Ancestry.com and hundreds of other companies available here). This fair value has been revised lower from our previous valuation assessment.
For some background, we think a comprehensive analysis of a company's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index (click here for more information on our methodology), which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best.
If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative valuation basis and is showing improvement in technical and momentum indicators, it scores high on our scale. Ancestry.com scores a 6 on our scale (reflecting its undervaluation but bearish technicals). The company continues to be a core position in our Best Ideas Newsletter.
Our Report on Ancestry.com
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Ancestry.com earns a ValueCreation™ rating of EXCELLENT, the highest possible mark on our scale. The company has been generating economic value for shareholders for the past few years, a track record we view very positively. We expect the company's return on invested capital (excluding goodwill) to expand to 77.5% from 53.5% during the next two years.
Ancestry.com's valuation is compelling at this time. The company is trading at a nice discount to our estimate of its fair value, even after considering an appropriate margin of safety. The forward earnings multiple and PEG ratio also look attractive versus peers.
Ancestry.com has an excellent combination of strong free cash flow generation and low financial leverage. We expect the free cash flow margin to average about 18.1% in coming years, and the company had no debt as of last quarter.
The shares have underperformed the market benchmark during the past quarter. Although Ancestry.com's valuation appears attractive, the company is currently exhibiting characteristics of a potential value trap, and we'd still be cautious at these levels. There may be a better entry point yet.
The company experienced a revenue CAGR of about 15.1% during the past 3 years. We expect its revenue growth to be better than its peer median during the next five years.
Economic Profit Analysis
The best measure of a company's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) with its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the economic profit spread. Ancestry.com's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 39.4%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 10.8%. As such, we assign the company a ValueCreation™ rating of EXCELLENT. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.
Cash Flow Analysis
Companies that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Ancestry.com's free cash flow margin has averaged about 25.7% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the company's cash flow generation is relatively STRONG. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. For more information on the differences between these two measures, please visit our website at Valuentum.com. At Ancestry.com, cash flow from operations increased about 92% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures expanded about 12% over the same time period.
Our discounted cash flow model indicates that Ancestry.com's shares are worth
between $27.00 - $55.00 each. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the company's HIGH ValueRisk™ rating, which is derived from the historical volatility of key valuation drivers. The estimated fair value of $41 per share represents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 54.2 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 19.4 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 17.8% during the next five years, a pace that is higher than the company's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 15.1%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 26.4%, which is above Ancestry.com's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 6.4% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Ancestry.com, we use a 10.8% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.
Margin of Safety Analysis
Our discounted cash flow process values each company on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the company's fair value at about $41 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk™ rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for Ancestry.com. We think the company is attractive below $27 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $55 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the company, in our opinion.
Future Path of Fair Value
We estimate Ancestry.com's fair value at this point in time to be about $41 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the company's current share price with the path of Ancestry.com's expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the company's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $56 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $41 increased at an annual rate of the company's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.
Pro Forma Financial Statements
Disclosure: I am long ACOM.
Additional disclosure: Ancestry.com is included in the portfolio of our Best Ideas Newsletter.