Performance Review: 'Smart Money' Stock Picks

by: Dark-Liquidity

If you're thinking of making some stock purchases based on broker or magazine 2012 stock recommendations, you may want to review how they performed in 2011. We tracked the performance of the stock pick portfolios for SmartMoney, Money, Fortune, Kiplinger and Barron's publications and also brokers, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. How did they perform? Half of the portfolios beat the S&P 500 SPY ETF, which lost 1.95%, and also the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ, which gained 0.95%. The clear winner was Goldman Sachs with a 10.66% gain for the year. Money, Kiplinger and SmartMoney magazines beat the index ETFs with gains of 3.29%, 2.92% and 2.41% respectively. Morgan Stanley lost 5.73%, Barron's lost 6.99%, Fortune lost 19.45% and at the bottom of the list is JPMorgan with a 23.13% loss. You can see the individual 2011 portfolios, stock picks and performances here.

How did the individual stock picks fare? Exactly half of the 84 stock picks selected by the group were in positive territory and half of them were in negative territory. Since the stock market was essentially flat for the year, this performance is no better than one would expect by random selection. However, there were some notable stocks that performed well. The top five stock picks are shown below:

Company Ticker Purchase Price Price Now Percent Gain Stock Picker
VF Corp. VFC $86.63 $126.99 46.59% Kiplinger
TJX TJX $44.57 $64.55 44.83% SmartMoney
Visa V $70.40 $101.53 44.22% Money Magazine
Starbucks SBUX $32.49 $46.01 41.61% Goldman Sachs
McDonald's MCD $77.10 $100.33 30.13% Kiplinger

JPMorgan picked four of the bottom five worst performing stocks. MF Global Holdings, which went bankrupt recently, was one of their unfortunate selections. The worst five stock picks are shown below:

Company Ticker Purchase Price Price Now Percent Gain Stock Picker
MF Global Holdings MF $8.43 $0.11 -98.70% J.P.Morgan
Entropic ENTR $12.40 $5.11 -58.79% Fortune
Rubicon Technology RBCN $21.41 $9.39 -56.14% J.P.Morgan
US Steel X $59.29 $26.46 -55.37% J.P.Morgan
Vecco Instruments VECO $43.68 $20.80 -52.38% J.P.Morgan

So what do this year's picks look like? Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is the most selected stock with five picks, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is second with three. Altria (NYSE:MO), AT&T (NYSE:T), Brinker International (NYSE:EAT), Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), Haliburton (NYSE:HAL), Lincoln National (LNC]], Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY), Target (NYSE:TGT), Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) all have been selected by two stock pickers. The complete list is shown in the table below. You can read more information and reasons for these recommendations by clicking the highlighted links with the stock picker's name.

Potash Corporation POT SmartMoney
CNOOC CEO SmartMoney
SAP SAP SmartMoney
Siemens SI SmartMoney
AT&T T SmartMoney
Exelon EXC SmartMoney
Newmont Mining NEM SmartMoney
New Gold NGD SmartMoney
Google GOOG SmartMoney
Baidu BIDU SmartMoney
General Electric GE S&P Capital IQ
Hasbro HAS S&P Capital IQ
Dupont DD S&P Capital IQ
Altria MO S&P Capital IQ
Chevron CVX S&P Capital IQ
AT&T ATT S&P Capital IQ
Harris Corp HRS S&P Capital IQ
Royal Bank of Canada RY S&P Capital IQ
UGI Corp UGI S&P Capital IQ
Abbott Labs ABT S&P Capital IQ
Schlumberger SLB Morgan Stanley
PT Telekomunikasi TLK Morgan Stanley AMZN Morgan Stanley
BorgWarner BWA Morgan Stanley
Union Pacific UNP Morgan Stanley
Terumo OTCPK:TRUMY Morgan Stanley
InterContinental Hotels IHG Morgan Stanley
Teradata TDC Morgan Stanley
Target TGT Morgan Stanley
RenaissanceRe RNR Morgan Stanley
Ryanair RYAAY Morgan Stanley
Imperial Tobacco ITYBY.PK Morgan Stanley
Anheuser-Busch InBev BUD Morgan Stanley
Life Healthcare Group OTC:LTGHF Morgan Stanley
NVIDIA NVDA Raymond James
Superior Energy Services SPN Raymond James
Whiting Petroleum WLL Raymond James
BMC Software BMC Raymond James
Lincoln National LNC Raymond James
Stanley Black and Decker SWK Raymond James
TW Telecom TWTC Raymond James
Verifone Systems PAY Raymond James
BB&T Corp BBT Raymond James
Nuance Communications NUAN Raymond James
Chevron CVX Raymond James
Post Properties PPS Raymond James
Brinker International EAT Raymond James
United Health Group UNH Credit Suisse
Wellpoint Inc WLP Credit Suisse
Dish Network Corp DISH Credit Suisse
Peabody Energy Corp BTU Credit Suisse
Tesoro Corp TSO Credit Suisse
Community Health CYH Credit Suisse
Stillwater Mining Company SWC Credit Suisse
Hess Corp. HES Credit Suisse
Valero Energy Corp. VLO Credit Suisse
Staples Inc. SPLS Credit Suisse
Nabors Industries NBR Credit Suisse
St.Jude Medical STJ JP Morgan
Brinker International EAT JP Morgan
Lam Research LRCX JP Morgan
Viacom VIA.B JP Morgan
Crown Holdings CCK JP Morgan
Apple AAPL JP Morgan
Owens Corning OC JP Morgan
The Fresh Market TFM JP Morgan
Las Vegas Sands LVS JP Morgan
Mylan MYL JP Morgan
Agilent A JP Morgan
Robert Half International RHI JP Morgan
Allstate Corp ALL JP Morgan
Broadcom BRCM JP Morgan
Freeport McMoRan FCX JP Morgan
Accretive Health AH JP Morgan
Haliburton HAL JP Morgan
HCA Inc HCA JP Morgan
Denbury Resource DNR JP Morgan
NRG Energy NRG JP Morgan
Pioneer Natural Resources PXD JP Morgan
Citigroup C JP Morgan
Cree Industries CREE JP Morgan
Consol Energy CNX JP Morgan
Nexen NXY JP Morgan
Zipcar ZIP JP Morgan
United Continental Holdings UAL JP Morgan
Lincoln National LNC Merrill Lynch
Marathon Oil MRO Merrill Lynch
CenturyLink CTL Merrill Lynch
Apple AAPL Merrill Lynch
Air Products and Chemical APD Merrill Lynch
CBS Corp. CBS Merrill Lynch
Eli Lilly LLY Merrill Lynch
Union Pacific UNP Merrill Lynch
Altria MO Merrill Lynch
Xcel Energy XEL Merrill Lynch
Aeroflex Holdings ARX Goldman Sachs
Apple AAPL Goldman Sachs
EMC Corporation EMC Goldman Sachs
NCR Corporation NCR Goldman Sachs
Oracle Corporation ORCL Goldman Sachs
Qualcomm Inc. QCOM Goldman Sachs
Synchronoss Technologies SNCR Goldman Sachs
Visa V Goldman Sachs
VMWare Inc. VMW Goldman Sachs
Apple AAPL Kiplinger
Chevron CVX Kiplinger
Dover Corp. DOV Kiplinger
Lockheed Martin Corp. LMT Kiplinger
Microsoft MSFT Kiplinger
Schnitzer Steel industries SCHN Kiplinger
Target TGT Kiplinger
Teva Pharmeceuticals Indust. TEVA Kiplinger
Apple AAPL Fortune
Caterpillar CAT Fortune
Enbridge Energy Partners EEP Fortune
Goodyear Tire GT Fortune
Halliburton HAL Fortune
Intel INTC Fortune
Johnson Controls JCI Fortune
Lockheed Martin LMT Fortune
Microsoft MSFT Fortune
Royal Bank of Canada RY Fortune
Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A Barrons
Comcast CMCSA Barrons
Daimler OTCPK:DDAIF Barrons
Freeport McMoRan FCX Barrons
MetLife MET Barrons
Procter & Gamble PG Barrons
Royal Dutch ADR RDS.A Barrons
Sanofi SNY Barrons
Seagate Technology STX Barrons
Vodafone Group ADR VOD Barrons

We'll be tracking how all the portfolios perform on a weekly basis and report their performance at the end of the first quarter. Good luck and remember past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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