Of Jobless Claims And Seasonal Adjustments

by: Karl Denninger

And to top it off we have a claims number this morning...

In the week ending December 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 372,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 373,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 376,500.

Heh that's really good, right? Sure looks like it..... so what's this?

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 535,112 in the week ending December 31, an increase of 37,423 from the previous week.

Uh, yeah.

We'll see how this seasonal adjustment works out. The Labor Department does seem to do reasonably well at smoothing things over the year, but this number is particularly important due to the ADP release.

The big table is not very interesting this week; remembering that this is for the week of the 17th, it is basically flat, down 8,311 from the prior week across all programs.

My macro-level view for the number tomorrow would be around 100-125k, but that ADP number is so far out of whack that I have to run with a +250k estimate (with the usual 50k error band either side) even though I don't believe it.

I'll be very interested in the household data tomorrow, especially if there is divergence with the official establishment results.

Stay tuned.