WebMethods: Speculation On Higher Bid Persists

Just a quick update on WebMethods (WEBM). As I posted last week, the company has agreed to be acquired by Software AG for $546 million in cash, or $9.15 a share. But the stock continues to inch above the offering price, as traders continue to speculate that a competing bidder could emerge.

John Reilly Walsh, an analyst with Citigroup, puts the probability of a higher offer at about 30%:

We would not rule out another bid given the broad interest by larger IT organizations to expand their SOA [systems oriented architecture] and BPM [business process management] toolsets, but think WEBM has been receptive to a sale for over a year.

Meanwhile, Walsh says that he continues to see BEA Systems (BEAS) and Tibco (TIBX) as “attractive acquisition targets given their leading SOA product sets,” but notes that an acquisition of WebMethods by Software AG, a relatively small European software company, is not likely to set off the kind of “land grab” that might occur if a larger software company was doing the deal.

This morning, WebMethods is up 10 cents at $9.36, or about 2% above the acquisition price.