Tebowing The S&P 500

by: Akram's Razor

The Tebow Effect

Oct 2: Broncos lose to Packers and another disappointing Kyle Orton performance leads to talk of a potential Tebow stimulus package.

Oct 4: S&P 500 puts bottom at 1074 and begins to discount the potential Tebow bailout of the Broncos offense. The market finishes the week with a slight gain.

Oct 9: Tebow bailout becomes official as he steps in at halftime and nearly rallies the Broncos from 16 point deficit against the Chargers.

Oct 10-Oct 28: Tebow mania sweeps the market as S&P 500 rallies 11% during the Broncos' bye week and victory over the Dolphins.

Oct 30: Tebow and Broncos massacred by the Lions.

Oct 31-Nov 1: S&P 500 drops 6% as fears emerge that the Tebow stimulus package may not be sustainable.

Nov 6: Tebow defeats Raiders.

Nov 7-Nov 8: S&P 500 bounces back as Tebowers step back in.

Nov 9-Nov 11: Shorts step in to take advantage of Tebow bounce. They cite Tebow's poor QB rating as evidence that the rally can't last.

Nov 13: Tebow and Broncos squeak by a weak Chiefs team.

Nov 14-Nov 17: S&P 500 starts to weaken as shorts up their bearish Tebow bets ahead of the Jets game.

Nov 17: Tebow defeats a heavily favored Jets team.

Nov 18: Market ignores Tebow victory and finishes flat. Shorts use this opportunity to call a Tebow top.

Nov 21- Nov 25: Market sells off with S&P 500 closing at 1158 ahead of the Broncos-Chargers game

Nov 27: Tebow defeats the Chargers.

Nov 28- Dec 2: S&P rallies 7.5% as Tebow mania starts to gain momentum and shorts run for cover.

Dec 4: Tebow defeats the Vikings.

Dec 5-Dec 9: Market moves sideways ahead of highly anticipated Bears game.

Dec 11: Broncos edge Bears on back to back 59 and 51 yard field goals by Matt Prater. Tebow completes only 50% of passes, throws one interception, and fumbles once.

Dec 12-Dec 16: Tebow bulls start to take some profits on the back of a weak performance and ahead of a tough game against Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Dec 18: Tebow and Broncos lose to Patriots.

Dec 19: Market close slower on the back of the Broncos' loss.

Dec 20- Dec 23: Market bounces back on optimism that Tebow's play in the New England game was conclusive evidence that he is for real, and that the stimulus package will not be fading anytime soon. S&P 500 closes at 1265 retesting the post Lions loss Tebow high.

Dec 24: Tebow and Broncos blown out by Bills.

Dec 27- Dec 30: S&P 500 closes slightly down as Tebow bulls decide to take it easy while Tebow Bears still burned by the Lions trap take a wait and see approach to the Bills loss.

Jan 1: Tebow has his worst game yet in 7-3 loss to Chiefs.

Jan 3- Jan 6: Market ignores Chiefs' loss and focuses on the fact that the Broncos are in the playoffs, and Tebow mania is still alive. S&P 500 closes at 1277 just 8 points off the Tebow era all time high. Tebow shorts getting squeezed swear the Steelers defense will put an end to this nonsense as the fundamentals eventually reassert themselves.

Jan 8: Tebow pulls off stunning upset of Steelers.

Jan 9- Jan 13: Market puts in new Tebow era high as the S&P 500 closes the week at 1289.

Jan 14: Tebow led Broncos are eliminated by Tom Brady and the Pats in a very anti climactic game. Tebow manages to complete only 33% of his passes and rushes for a meager 13 yards. Tebowmania is declared dead. Bears say we told you so.

Jan 17: Market reopens.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.