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And finally ... we can take a breath as the market slowed down for the first time in quite some time as a slew of economic data came in a bit under expectations and the technical levels on the market paved the way for some consolidation. The market opened higher after news about a possible Greek deal being met was floated as well as the Fed's recent decision to extend low rates into 2014 dropped the dollar index. Strong earnings from Netflix (NFLX) and Caterpillar (CAT) also helped at the open. Yet, throughout the day, the market faltered on the back of economic data like jobless claims, new home sales and leading indicators, which all missed expectations.
Moving into tomorrow, we believe the market may finally be ready to give up some gains. Over the past several reports, we have been talking about bearish positions to take advantage of the market's overvaluation, but we think two stocks to watch for next week may have more upside or at least volatility.
Two stocks on our radar are Broadcom (BRCM) and Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR). The prior is a stock that we believe has upside past its current price despite its strong movement as of late. The company is one of the largest suppliers to Apple (AAPL), and we believe that strong iPhone sales should give BRCM a lift as well as help its outlook. The company has had a couple poor reports in a row, and we believe a strong report could send them soaring. With GMCR, we do believe that the stock is going to make a nice move on earnings, but even if we do not want to pick a position ... we like doing a reverse iron condor on the stock on Wednesday of next week at the 50/55 bull call spread and 45/50 bear put spread that we believe will pay off well as GMCR has not moved less than 9% in the next day after earnings for the last 10 reports.
For tomorrow, earnings and Greece are extremely important, but we get the Q4 GDP estimate for the first time that is supposed to show more than 3% growth. That indicator will be important to the market, and a miss there could really hurt this rally. A beat may still not even mean a ton of upside. We would need a trifecta of Greece, earnings and GDP to keep it going. The most important earnings for tonight and tomorrow include Ford (F), Chevron (CVX), Rambus (RMBS) and Riverbed (RVBD).
We had a good day as we got a 10% gain in DR Horton (DHI) from our Extended Value Portfolio. We, additionally, were able to exit EBAY and VRSN for neutral exits. We entered a bear call spread in Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Feb18 90/92.50 spreads. We entered a bull put spread in EOG Resources (EOG) as well at the Feb18 95/92.50 strikes.
We have the following positions. In our Short-Term Equity Portfolio we are long VeriSign (VRSN) and UltraShort Proshares DJ-UBS Crude (SCO). In our Options Portfolio, we are long Priceline (PCLN), Blackstone (BX), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and United States Oil (USO). We are short Deckers Outdoor . In our Earnings Portfolio, we are long VF Corp. (VFC) CarMax (KMX), Avis Budget (CAR), Vertex Pharma (VRTX), EOG Resources and Ashland (ASH). We are short AOL (AOL). We are in an iron condor in Apple.
Chart courtesy of finviz.com.
Disclosure: I am long SCO.
Additional disclosure: We have the following positions. In our Short-Term Equity Portfolio we are long VeriSign (VRSN) and UltraShort Proshares DJ-UBS Crude (SCO). In our Options Portfolio, we are long Priceline (PCLN), Blackstone (BX), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and United States Oil (USO). We are short Deckers Outdoor (DECK). In our Earnings Portfolio, we are long VF Corp. (VFC) CarMax (KMX), Avis Budget (CAR), Vertex Pharma (VRTX), EOG Resources (EOG) and Ashland (ASH). We are short AOL (AOL). We are in an iron condor in Apple (AAPL).