• Monday’s retail sales report (Consensus 0.6%, 0.9% less autos)
• CPI on Tuesday (Consensus 0.2% core, 0.6% headline)
• Housing Starts on Tuesday (Consensus 1.49 million, SA)
Earnings season is quite active this week as well.
• IBM (IBM) - Consensus expects $1.21 on $21.86 billion in revenue and next-quarter guidance of $1.46 on $23.04 billion. Given that these numbers represent sales growth of 5.8% and 5.2%, respectively, it would be a near-disaster if they miss.
• Intel (INTC) - Consensus wants $0.22 on $9 billion this quarter and $0.22 on $8.9 billion next. We think that next quarter sales figure, which represents 10.8% year/year growth, is too optimistic.
• Linear Technology (LLTC) - Consensus wants $0.32 on $254 million this quarter and $0.34 on $263 million next.
• Yahoo! (YHOO) - Consensus expects $0.11 on $1.21 billion this quarter and $0.13 on 1.28 billion next.
• Motorola (MOT) - Consensus expects $0.02 on $9.3 billion this quarter and $0.08 on $10 billion next. They already preannounced, so the guidance is the important bit. Numbers have come down dramatically but may have further yet to go.
• Armor Holdings (AH) - Consensus wants $1.11 on $841 million this quarter and $0.92 on $775 next. There may well be a guidance beat since the numbers expect a significant growth slowdown year/year.
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - Expected to lose $0.46 on $1.34 billion in sales this quarter and $0.36 on $1.35 billion next. Given how disastrous the current outlook is, we may be getting near the bottom for estimates. Valuation, however, remains questionable. We hate negative P/E multiples.
• Google (GOOG) - Consensus expects $3.30 on $2.5 billion in revenue this quarter and $3.41 on $2.63 billion next. The Double-click acquisition may help next quarter. Without it, the estimates seem more realistic (less room for upside surprise) than they have been recently.
• Landstar (LSTR) - Consensus expects $0.40 on $590 million this quarter and $0.54 on $656 million next. We think they will beat.
• Nokia (NOK) - Consensus expects $0.32 on $13.1 billion this quarter, $0.34 on $13.9 billion next. We take the under.
• SAP (SAP) - Consensus expects $0.36 on $2.93 billion this quarter and $0.44 on $3.17 billion next. Both seem on the high side.
• Xerox (XRX) - Consensus expects $0.20 on $3.82 billion this quarter and $0.27 on $4.09 next. The estimates have come down but are at the high end of revised guidance.
Disclosure: author has a short position in Landstar (LSTR) put options at the time of publication.