Analyst Sees Both Upside and Risks Associated With Lundin Mining's Purchase of Tenke

With Lundin Mining Corp.’s (LMC) takeout of Tenke Mining Corp. [Toronto: TNK] for roughly C$1.4-billion, the company adds yet another world class ore body to its already substantial high quality deposits, says Dundee Securities analyst Mike Collison.

He has a “market outperform” rating and C$17.25 price target on Lundin shares, representing upside of roughly 15%.

However, he points to the location of the Tenke Fungurume copper project as a downside to the deal.

Risks such as project delays and damage to infrastructure that came from the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s civil war, may now be joined by political uncertainty related to new mining permits and reviews of those already granted.

“It often seems that the best way to describe the political situation in the DRC is as ‘fluid,’” Mr. Collison said in a note to clients.

He added that Tenke’s operating partner, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), which operates the project, provides political weight Lundin may not be able to achieve.

Lundin shares dipped substantially following the announcement, but have since recovered.

Mr. Collison thinks much of this initial decline was due to arbitrage player shorting Lundin to go long Tenke, adding that he expects the deal will be completed.

LMC 1-yr chart: