David Fry's Market Outlook for Thursday
The headline will read happily that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has made a new high, wiping-out the sharp decline of late February and early March. That is that!
Leading markets higher were earnings from important companies, especially financials [banks] that are heavyweights in the DJIA pushing it higher.
Not to be left out were homebuilders, caught in another short-squeeze. Mortgage foreclosures up 47% from last year, and Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) decided to pony-up $20 billion to aid subprime borrowers. How will that work? How will that fit in with their delayed financials? None of our business I guess.
In tech land earnings were mixed, as Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) was hit hard while semi's rallied led by Intel Corp. (INTC). eBay Inc.'s (EBAY) earnings can change the complexion for the Internet space. Some cash-rich tech companies in the semiconductor space are contemplating increased stock buybacks. So much for research and dividends.
Less noticed in the DJIA hullabaloo was the declining dollar, which will be pointed to as the villain should markets ever decline again.
In other markets things were just okay, since the DJIA is headline stealing today.
Meanwhile around the planet everything seems to be just moving along.
The folks who bought you United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) today launched United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG). If you have the stomach for trading a market this, volatile you're welcome to step up to the plate and give it a go. Just remember, PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE) includes only a 10% allocation to natural gas for one primary reason -- volatility. This is the commodity that caused hedge fund Amaranth to collapse. An active hurricane season could cause prices to spike seasonally. Good luck!
That's a wrap. The bulls remain squarely in charge. I do detect some hesitancy in some overseas markets, but they've had a good run and might take a rest here. More earnings will drive markets. And once that's over the condition of the dollar may take center stage. But who can predict the future?
Disclaimer: Among other issues, the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: streetTRACKS SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB), First Trust DJ Internet Index ETF (FDN), PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish (UDN), streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF (GLD), PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB), PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE), S&P 500 Index (SPY), MidCap SPDRs ETF (MDY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ETF (EFA), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Mexico Index ETF (EWW), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF (EWC), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (EWG), iShares MSCI Netherlands (EWN), iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (EWJ), iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY), iShares Trust FTSE-Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI) and iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (EWA).
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