JDA Software A Bullish Play For Longs Following An After Hours Gain On Earnings

| About: JDA Software (JDAS)

JDA Software (NASDAQ:JDAS) is due with its Q4 results in tonight's after hours trade, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to report a profit of $0.63 per share on revenue of $173 million.

JDAS is holding a long-term pattern of wider post-earnings share performance. The stock has seen more aggressive next-day play in 16 of the last 29 quarters we have tracked and in two near-term examples turned flat evening trading into a strong next-day gain.

Looking deeper into the data, JDAS has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 15 of the 29 quarters we've tracked, and in 11 of those quarters (73% of the time), the stock has added to its evening performance in the following day's regular session. It also twice turned flat evening trading into a strong jump the next day.

On the downside, JDAS has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 12 of the 29 quarters tracked and its follow-up performance is mixed, reversing seven times and widening in five events.

  • On Oct. 27, 2011, JDAS ended the evening session flat despite beating Q3 expectations. The stock soared the next day, charging 12.3% higher by the close on Oct. 28.
  • On July 26, 2011, the stock fell 8.9% in after-hours trading following a Q2 miss. Shares fell a smaller 5.1% the next day.
  • On April 26, 2011, the stock ended evening trading near flat after a Q1 earnings beat. Shares rose 12.5% the next day.
  • On Feb. 1, 2011, the stock tanked 19% in evening action after the company missed with revenue, beat with EPS and issued mixed guidance. Share rebounded somewhat the next day to post a regular-session loss of 8.4%.
  • On Oct. 26, 2010, the stock jumped 10% in after-hours following a quarterly report from JDAS that beat results. Shares rose an even more robust 12.9% the next day.
  • On July 27, 2010, JDAS shed 2.4% in evening trading after missing Q2 earnings expectations. The stock narrowed its downside the following day, closing the July 28 regular session off 1.8%.
  • On April 27, 2010, the stock gained 3.2% after a Q1 beat. Shares were up 3.7% the next day.
  • On Jan. 25, 2010, the stock was up 0.4% after a Q4 EPS miss but a revenue beat. Shares rose a stronger 6.2% the next day.
  • On Oct. 19, 2009, JDAS declined 2.9% in after-hours trading despite beating Q3 expectations and reiterating its outlook. It slumped further in the red the next day, ending the Oct. 20 regular session down 4.9%.
  • On July 20, 2009, JDAS soared 22.2% in after-hours trading after blowing past Q2 expectations. The stock surged even higher the following day, rising 34.2% by the closing bell on July 21.
  • On April 20, 2009, JDAS declined 6.5% in after-hours trading after missing Q1 expectations. The stock reversed course the following day, rising 2% by the close on April 21.
  • On Jan. 26, 2009, the stock edged up 0.1% after a Q4 earnings beat. Shares reversed to close down 1.9% the next day.
  • On Oct. 20, 2008, JDAS advanced 9% in after-hours trading after the company beat Q3 expectations. The stock added to its upside the next day, closing the Oct. 21 regular session up 12.2%.
  • On July 28, 2008, JDAS declined 9.5% in after-hours trading after coming in shy of Q2 expectations. The stock cut its downside slightly the next day, ending the July 29 regular session down 7.7%.
  • On April 28, 2008, JDAS advanced 1% in night trading after beating earnings expectations. The stock leaped higher the following day, rising 7%.
  • On Jan. 28, 2008, the stock fell 2.7% during evening trading after the company beat with Q4 and full year results. The loss swelled to 6% the next day.
  • On Oct. 22, 2007, the stock jumped 8.8% during evening trading after the company beat with Q3 results. The gain improved to 10% the next day.
  • On July 23, 2007, JDAS charged 11.9% higher in after-hours trading after the company easily topped Q2 expectations. It narrowed that upside slightly the next day, ending the July 24 regular session up 10.6%.
  • On April 23, 2007, JDAS slipped 0.5% in after-hours trading after the company beat Q1 expectations. It saw that slim downside evaporate the following day as JDAS ended the April 24 regular session with a 2.1% gain.
  • On Jan. 29, 2007, JDAS jumped 6.8% in night trading despite missing Q4 estimates. Shares strengthened further the next day, closing up 8.9% in the following regular session.
  • On Oct. 23, 2006, JDAS shed 6.2% in after-hours trading after the company reported results below expectations. The stock continued its downside trend the following day, closing the regular session off 9.8%.
  • On July 24, 2006, JDAS was cut for a 0.5% decline in night play on the heels of in-line revenue results, better-than-expected EPS, and guidance that mostly matched expectations. The stock pushed deeper into the red on July 25, losing 1.7% by the closing bell.
  • On April 24, 2006, shares finished the evening session just lower, slipping 0.7% after JDAS reports its latest earnings and revenue figures below what Wall Street had expected. The loss fattened to 4.1% during the following day's regular trading hours.
  • On Jan. 23, 2006, the issue was down 2.1% in the evening session after the company missed by a penny with Q4 profit on weaker revenue that what the Street had guessed. The stock rebounded, however, to advance 1% the next day.
  • On October 24, 2005, JDAS gained 3% after beating Q3 expectations. Shares added to those gains the next day, ending regular-hours trade up 9.6%.
  • On July 25, 2005 JDAS advanced 3.6% in evening trading after the company topped Q2 expectations. Buyers continued pumping the upside on July 26, advancing 6.4% between the bells.
  • On April 25, 2005, JDAS climbed 2.8% after Q1 revenue edged above Street expectations and EPS beat the Street's target by 1 cent. Upside momentum slowed in the April 26 regular session, when JDAS closed up only 0.5%.
  • On Jan. 24, 2005, the stock surged 12% in after-hours trading after Q4 revenue decisively topped the Street view and EPS came in 8 cents above the FC mean. Again, gains narrowed in the Jan. 25 regular session, and JDAS closed up 10.3%.
  • JDAS gained 1.3% the night of Oct. 18, 2004, after reporting in-line Q3 revs and EPS that beat the Street by a penny. Its upside widened in the Oct. 19 regular session, when it jumped 7.2%.
  • On July 19, 2004, JDAS lost 3.2% after hours despite Q2 results that matched Wall Street expectations. Traders thought better of the stock in the next-day regular session, and it changed course to close up a healthy 4%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.