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Below we have done some analysis on five stocks and how they perform into March expiration. This analysis will help us to determine how to assess this current rally and what stocks may be a bit ahead of themselves as well as what stocks still have room to grow.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM)

Exxon Mobil has been in a great rally since the beginning of October. Earnings came out fairly strong for the company, but they were not strong enough to give the stock more upside. Technically the Jan-Mar performance data is mixed for XOM.

The returns for XOM from Jan-Mar option expiration seem to have a bearish bias for the past five years and a bullish bias for the last 10 years. Unfortunately, the returns vary so much and my estimated max high/low on the stock gives us a large range. There is no way to trade XOM at this time. However if we see the stock trade close near its estimated extremes then we may initiate a new position. At this time I'm neutral.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)

Amazon reports after the bell on Tuesday. Investors are anxious to see the number of Kindle Fire units sold since their release date of November 15th in the U.S. to compare against the number of sold iPads. Given that AMZN is trading at a +100 P/E ratio and the company may be losing money on Kindles, we are concerned about the company's upside.

Technically, the returns for AMZN during Jan-Mar option expiration have been dramatic in both directions. The stock broke through strong resistance at both $180 and $190, but it still has yet to move above the 200 SMA at roughly $202. The stock is mixed in this timeframe, and it really will depend on their earnings as to their next move.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR)

Green Mountain stock has been pummeled since September. The stock is trading at a more attractive P/E of 40 now.

Technically the data above estimate a max low price on GMCR of $37.15 for March 17. Given that the stock dipped below $40 back in November, I think the lows are in.

Suggested Trade: GMCR - Sell Mar. 17th 37/36 put spread (Bull Put Spread)

Size - 5.5% of Giorgio's Corner Portfolio Size = (6 spreads)

Entry: Sell Limit: 0.12

Stop Loss: 0.33

Exit Price: 0.00

Max Return: 13.63%

(Note: Return calculation does not include commission. Max Return is calculated as Return at Risk based on my entry not Return on Margin.)

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS)

Las Vegas Sands reports after the well on Wednesday. The stock is right at its 1yr breakout line with heavy resistance at $49. Resistance will only be broken after earnings; however, if we look at the past, LVS stock tends to lag from Jan-Mar option expiration.

With an average return of -10.85% since inception this stock has shown a bearish bias during this time period. According to the stats, I get an implied max high of $52.49 on the stock my Mar-17th. I think this is reasonable to believe…imagine the stock breaks out this week, then moves up with a hypothetical continued rally of the market and then sells off back down to is resistance turned support line near $49 (seems reasonable). If you're interested in LVS, I suggest the following...but wait until after earnings to place the trade.

Suggested Trade: LVS - Sell Mar'17th 55/57.50 call spread (Bear Call Spread)

Size - 4.54% of Giorgio's Corner Portfolio Size = (2 spreads)

Entry: Sell Limit: 0.40

Stop Loss: 1.15

Exit Price: 0.00

Max Return: 19.04%

(Note: Return calculation does not include commission. Max Return is calculated as Return at Risk based on my entry not Return on Margin.)

Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN)

Tyson foods reports earnings before this Friday. The food processing company has been downgraded twice in the past two weeks:

1. Stephens downgraded the firm to Equal Weight from Overweight on Jan. 18th.

2. BMO Capital downgraded the firm to market perform from outperform on Jan. 25th.

Given the bearish recommendations and recent sell off in TSN (despite a strong market); I became interested in the Jan-Mar returns in the stock.

Despite two years of negative returns TSN has shown a bullish bias for the past 10 years with an average return of 8%. This is a case where I do not think the max low estimate will come true. The $17.50 level seems very strong. Given this bullish technical data I suggest the following trade.

Suggested Trade: TSN - Buy Mar. 17th 17/18 call spread (Bull Call Spread)

Size - 5.5% of Giorgio's Corner Portfolio Size = (6 spreads)

Entry: Buy Limit: 0.75

Stop Loss: 0.48

Exit Price: 0.00

Max Return: 33.33%

(Note: Return calculation does not include commission. Max Return is calculated as Return at Risk based on my entry not Return on Margin.)

(Charts are from Finviz.com. Analyst information is from theflyonthewall.com.)

Source: Historical Analysis Of Exxon Mobil, Amazon, Green Mountain And More

Additional disclosure: Disclosure: I own Feb 18 SPY bear call spreads, Feb 18 SPY bear put spreads, Feb 18 NFLX bear call spreads, Apr and Jul GLL bear call spreads. I’m short C calls.