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JPMorgan will be filing its 13F for the quarter ended Dec. 31 in the next few days. Meanwhile, it is interesting to have a look at some of its winning buys from the September quarter. These stocks have significantly outperformed S&P500's 13.1% gain since September 30, with all of them returning north of 20%.

Company Name


Shares bought in Sept. quarter

Shares Held 09/30/2011

% change in share price since Sept. 30

CBS Corp





Marathon Petroleum Corp





Occidental Petroleum Corp





Monsanto Company





Comcast Corp





Source: 13F filing.

I believe Occidental and Monsanto will continue their outperformance going forward. However, one stock in the above list where I would recommend booking profit after the recent run up is Comcast.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation is one of the most profitable of the U.S. large cap oil companies. The company continues to report strong financial results with cash flow from operations of $12.3 billion for the year ended 2011 and annualized ROE of 19%. With 70% of its production linked to Brent, Occidental is expected to generate ~6% of FCF yield in 2012 at current oil prices. In the longer term, even if we adjust for company's capex plan of ~$7bn annually, Occidental is likely to generate ~$20bn of cash by 2016. In the near to medium term, exploration and appraisal results in CA conventional and shale plays are likely to serve as catalysts for the stock.

Monsanto is another good long candidate among above stocks. Monsanto, along with its subsidiaries, is a provider of agricultural products for farmers. The company's seeds, biotechnology trait products, and herbicides provide farmers with solutions that improve productivity, reduce the costs of farming, and produce better foods for consumers and better feed for animals. It manages business in two segments: Seeds and Genomics, and Agricultural Productivity.

Monsanto's EPS forecast for the current year is 3.51 and next year is 4.07. According to the consensus estimates, its top line is expected to grow 9.60% in the current year and 6.60% next year. It is trading at a forward P/E of 20x. Out of 21 analysts covering the company, 14 are positive and have buy recommendations, one has a sell recommendation and six have hold ratings. My main bullish thesis on Monsanto hinges on the fact that agriculture commodity prices continues to remain strong which will continue to be a positive for farm economics.

One stock in the above list where I would recommend booking profit is Comcast Corporation. Comcast Corporation appears to be a good sell given its continued investment spending in NCBU along with macro uncertainty which might adversely affect advertising spend. Although cable business reported strong last quarter results, it is expected to slow in 2012 due to product maturation and intense competition.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Source: JPMorgan's Best-Performing Buys: 2 Potential Longs, 1 To Avoid