David Fry's Market Outlook for Tuesday

One way Nigerians spend a romantic evening is watching the after-glow of another terrorist attack on oil production facilities. Well, it is a cheap date!

So we're back to oil market instability caused by nervousness about weekend voting irregularities in Nigeria. And here it's only late April and hurricane season is a little over a month away. It looks like the geopolitical and weather premium built into energy prices may remain.

This leads me to my ongoing bitch complaint regarding the lack of "any" energy policy in the U.S. since the first oil embargo in 1973. I mean, c'mon -- 34 years of no action! No drilling off any U.S. coast anymore [thank you Nancy, Jeb & Co.], don't touch Anwar [thank you Dems], no nuke plants in our back yard [thank you Jane], no nuke waste stored in the Yucca Mountains [thank you Harry], no wind farms near Cape Cod [thank you Ted] and no more fossil fuels at all [thank you Al]. In the meantime strategic interests owing to our own shortsightedness have us at war for the stuff [thank you George I and II]. So given this litany you'd think we'd have done something in our interest -- but no. Our suppliers are laughing all the way to the bank while we jabber about global warming and our boys are dying. It's a national disgrace!

Okay, I'm done.

You must think I've crossed over to the dark side -- just a commodity and currency guy. No. But these markets will remain in the spotlight for some time.

Elsewhere equity markets consolidated. This is not surprising after Friday's big run-up especially after an options expiry session.

Will the following three PowerShares issues [PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductor (PSI), PowerShares Dynamic Software (PSJ) and PowerShares Dynamic Biotech & Genome (PBE)] continue to be more "dynamic" on the upside than their conventional counterparts?

And how about those equal weights that I like so much? Um, clearly I don't have Cramer's pull.

Okay let's move overseas and check out a smattering of markets.

I'd say the only folks who enjoyed Monday were oil barons. But the market consolidation today shouldn't surprise anyone on the heels of such a sharp move higher. There will be plenty of economic data coming our way throughout the week along with a passel of earnings reports.

And about energy policy... oh, nevermind.

The beat goes on.

Disclaimer: Among other issues, the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE), PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (UDN), streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF (GLD), PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund (DBP), PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB), PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC), S&P 500 Index (SPY), MidCap SPDRs ETF (MDY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares ETF (QQQQ), PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductor (PSI), PowerShares Dynamic Software (PSJ), PowerShares Dynamic Biotech & Genome (PBE), First Trust DJ Internet Index ETF (FDN), Rydex S&P Equal Weight Materials (RTM), Rydex S&P Equal Weight Financial Services (RYF), Rydex S&P Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RHS), Rydex S&P Equal Weight Health Care ETF (RYH), iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ETF (EFA), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund (ILF), iShares S&P Europe 350 (IEV), iShares MSCI Netherlands (EWN), iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY), iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF (EWC), iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (EWA), iPath MSCI India ETN (INP), iShares Trust FTSE-Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI).

Comments

[cynic69:]

David
I share your frustration with the lack of an energy policy but you have missed the major issue. Its seems so obvious that our grand children are going to live in a world where the demand for oil is higher than the supply (search for "Hubbert's Peak). This situation is going to cause recession and chaos (big business –read Exxon- is largely to blame). James Howard Kunstler says in his book “The Long Emergency” that there are NO alternatives to carbon energy. Even if he is only partially right the world is soon going to be in a great deal of trouble. The kind of energy policy we should have had is one that produces a low energy foot print for civilization. This means that instead of the oil companies being rich the designers and engineers that can build the kind of energy efficient life style that relies on conservation and sustainable energy sources will prosper (why don’t all structures in the U.S. have solar panels and geothermal temperature control systems?). Greed and stupidity have placed the U.S. in a position where we are at the mercy of the maniacs in the middle east and the world class crooks that run the governments in Africa’s oil producing nations. When we buy gasoline at the pump some of the profits go to buy fine liquor for the royal family and pay the “teachers” at the madrasas where the students chant cute slogans – “Death To America”.

Gale Whitaker

2007 Apr 24 11:45 AM