Allstate Corp (ALL) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Wednesday, February 1, after the market close.
Guidance
For fiscal year 2011, analysts estimate that ALL will earn $0.82. For the 3rd quarter of fiscal year 2011, ALL announced earnings per share of $0.32, representing 39% of the total annual estimate. For fiscal year 2012, analysts estimate that ALL's earnings per share will grow by 384% to $3.97. ALL's current quarter consensus estimate has increased over the past 90 days from $0.90 to $0.97, a gain of 6.9%. This improvement is significantly greater than its Industry average of -4.0% during the same time period. The consensus range is between $0.70 and $1.29 with an average of $0.96 according to 24 analysts reviewed. Of the past six earnings reports, AET had four positive and two negative surprise reports of 95.1%, 21.3%, 36.4%, -43.1%, -14.9%, and 17.1% respectively.
On 01/26/12, ALL closed at $29.15, 15.3% below its 52-week high and 30.9% above its 52-week low. ALL shares are currently trading 6.6% above their 50-day moving average of $27.33, and 5.0% above their 200-day moving average of $27.76. ALL offers a $0.21 dividend yielding 2.89%. This stock has been on the rise since last October, returning about 31% in roughly three months. I see some pressure near the $30 mark, but should push past towards the mid to low $30s.
I believe this earnings report will be positive giving Allstate the push it needs to break into the $30s. Premiums and deposits totaled $4.1 billion in 2010, down from $5.1 billion in 2009 (and sharply below the nearly $11 billion in 2008 amid the absence of a $4.2 billion funding agreement). Of the 2010 total, interest-sensitive life insurance products accounted for 36%, traditional life and accident and health insurance for 26%, fixed annuities for 25%, and bank deposits for the remaining 13%. Despite the sharp drop in premiums and deposits ALL seems to manage very well and I look forward to its rise in price after earnings.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
