David Fry's Market Outlook for Wednesday

Yesterday's "no energy policy" rant drew lots of feedback whether posted or through emails. I should be done with it -- BUT I STILL HAVE MORE TO SAY MAN!

Firstly, ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) is an easy piñata for folks to bang at. Would not XOM and others want to drill for oil in Anwar and off the coasts of Florida or California? They would do so in a heartbeat. But with domestic supply sources blocked by NIMBY's, they have no alternative but go overseas and suck-up to the Chavez's and sheiks of the world. Their business is oil and energy. It's what they do! Stop them from doing it and they die. It's no nefarious conspiracy.

Second, Chucky, the American consumer, expects sub $2 per gallon gasoline as an "entitlement" with which to drive his SUV and RV willy-nilly about the country. Elsewhere in the world folks are paying $5 commonly.

Not being energy independent means we fight wars to stabilize the places from where it comes.

And, somehow this is all the fault of greedy big oil companies?

Chucky is also told the planet is warming and he must do something about it. Oh wow! Will that affect NASCAR?

You want to tick-off Chucky? Good luck -- because thus far he's been a hard dude to get along with. Just ask the spineless politicians who he's intimidated.

As to alternative energy, who wouldn't be for it? Maybe just some folks who don't want it near their Cape Cod compounds.

Okay I'm done.

This was a pretty weird day. I don't look at the markets during the day too much. Usually I just inspect overseas markets, get caught up on the news, and watch the opening. The news really sucked early today. Home prices and sales were down, lower consumer confidence data, and more concerns about subprime mortgages overwhelmed other news out of the gate. Last night I noted Texas Instruments Inc.'s (TXN) strong earnings and "after hours" action and thought we'd have a good day. But the morning news coupled with poor market action overseas threw a wet blanket on those sentiments.

So when I looked at the close, I was more than a little surprised. But that's how markets have operated lately -- ignore bad news and focus on bullish news. This is earnings season, and the bulls love the earnings reports particularly from tech, which seems poised to run.

What I sense is happening right now in markets is that there's a subtle shift in money-flow from previously hot areas [emerging and overseas markets] to tech. And tech may be the next hot area.

The bottom line is I sense a shift to tech. If that's right, then tech sectors outlined above should do well. And as usual, you can target your efforts to just those rather the entire sector.

We don't need to post all the overseas markets once again today. We'll revisit them all tomorrow.

Now as to my energy rants, I'm done -- really I am.

Disclaimer: Among other issues, the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish (UDN), streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF (GLD), PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE), iShares Goldman Sachs Technology Index Fund (IGM), First Trust DJ Internet Index ETF (FDN), PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductor (PSI), PowerShares Dynamic Biotech & Genome (PBE) PowerShares Dynamic Software (PSJ).

Comments

[Dominoes Fa...:]

This is a letter I sent to the LA Times today. I say tax gasoline to $5/gal and Detroit might get competitive again. Also don't drill offshore, conserve and husband our oil and use up other countries oil first.

Toyota beats GM in world sales for the first time because of "missteps by U.S. - based automakers." Missteps, are you kidding! Management disasters are more like it. Roger Smith (CEO '81-'90, infamous in M. Moore's movie Roger & Me) reorganizes GM and destroys individual brands. More recent CEO's kept building huge SUV's (only area of profits) expanding fleet right off a cliff and B.S.ing everyone about hydrogen and dumping electric. WOW ...just a few missteps. I would laugh but I can't stop crying.

2007 Apr 25 01:16 PM