How Apple's iPhone Will Change the Laptop Industry

I wrote in an earlier piece that Apple's (AAPL) iPhone is most likely to be positioned against laptops as a convergence device that eliminates the need to have to carry around multiple devices. Frank Levinson had talked about the iPhone as a convergence device as well, a few months back.

Let’s take a look at the laptop market. HP (HPQ) is No. 1 with 20% market share, Dell (DELL) is No. 2 with 15%. At No. 3, breathing down Dell’s neck, is an unexpected Taiwanese company: Acer. They’re followed by Toshiba (TOSBF.PK), Lenovo (LNVGY.PK), Fujitsu-Siemens (FJTSY.PK), SONY (SNE), Asus, and at an unglorious No. 9, Apple.

So far, Apple’s strategy has been to sell really expensive notebooks. But with the entry of the iPhone, this could change dramatically! We get all the Apple magic, for a low price-point for laptops, although a very high price-point for a phone.

The branding of this Laptop replacement as a Phone is a clever marketing move. “Here, look, we have a phone that can replace your laptop …” Never mind that it is a very expensive phone.

I wonder how these rankings would look in 2010, if the iPhone was counted under laptops, instead of under Phones? Who could come up with a full scale Windows based covergence device? Is it even possible, given how heavy an OS Vista is? What would happen to Palm (PALM) and Research in Motion (RIMM)? Neither is a full-scale OS. Nor is Symbian. Nor, for that matter, is Windows Mobile, although it has the advantage of being integrated well into the rest of the enterprise eco-system.

Only Linux can meaningfully compete in the OS arena. Who is building the Linux-based covergence device?

Remember, the key decision that Apple has made, is to put the Mac OS on the iPhone, opening up a vast range of possibilities. The competition also needs to think OS!

Comments

[rhodope:]

Linux based cellphones are not new. MOT and NOK are both working on those as we speak. All you would need is the ability for them to attach larger screens and keyboards and you might have something that could cut into some parts of desktop functionalities.

2007 Apr 26 04:20 AM

[rhodope:]

Oh and also DELL announced that they are going to try to make a cellphone, probably based off their palmtop/organizer lineup. not to mention they pilfered a MOT exec.

2007 Apr 26 04:25 AM

[Lee Gaupp:]

I liked reading this article, but I think the author misses the point of a portable device. If the iPhone works like it plans on working I look forward to owning one right away. But it will not cause me to do away with my laptop.

I've used a Blackberry for several years. When the 8700 came out (color) and it had a brisk enough internet connection where I could do google searches, etc. quickly and effectively. When I need my laptop I pull it out. But I will still use both - when appropriate or needed.

Now if in the future I could have the same power of my MacBookPro or my tablet pc, where I could hook up a keyboard, mouse, external 15" monitor, etc. then...maybe then... I'll go down to one device and laptop manufacturers will be in danger.

just my .02

2007 Apr 26 01:32 PM

[rhodope:]

Agreed.

2007 Apr 26 02:04 PM

[Malkiel:]

I think only a small number of users will try to make serious use of iphone convergence capabilities. They're up against the same thing faced by makers of those great little color lcd tv's a few years back--the idea is only good until you actually have to interface with those small screens and keypads, then you realize a small laptop is really the best compromise.

2007 Apr 26 02:23 PM

[seekingalpha:]

Sounds like a lot of Hot Air and wishful thinking.
Windows Mobile still needs to improve synchronization with Outlook, the only option for conflicts is REPLACE or REPLACE.. why not bring out the merge option available within Outlook.

Cell phone companies should be thinking smaller, as in wrist size, converge with the watch appliance.

On the larger size, convergence with eBooks is a slam dunk. You have the memory capacity and you have the screen resolution. Be nice to upload Quality reading material to peruse on the go.

The ultimate is WiFi on the phone, need I say FREE WiFi on the phone. The ability to email from a phone via free service is the future. A few phones do it now. All of the service providers insist you must purchase their Service to get good connectivity. The Fact is email flys off mobile devices everywhere. The middle of the freeway, the middle of the Mohave Dessert.

Next step is Skype

2007 Apr 26 03:06 PM

[scottjsterling:]

"Next step is Skype"

That is correct. Free wifi for the net and skype... the beginning of the great convergence device. Replaces everything when you are mobile.

2007 Apr 26 11:40 PM