I’m not going to bore you nice people reviewing how right I was about the markets, and I’m a lot more concerned with protecting the positions we have on the table, because taking profits off the table, as we did this week, doesn’t mean a thing if you blow your principal!
So it will be protect, protect, protect next week until we get a nice, positive break forward. The Asian markets will be flying at half mast at best, due to holidays and the month ends on Monday, so change will be the big constant next week and we will need to be quick on our feet.
Sadly, we are still sitting on some big losers in the STP as our protective Diamonds Trust, Series 1 (NYSEARCA:DIA) and oil puts have been just terrible, but the portions were right and we gave up about 20% of our profits to pay for the insurance. We should have shorted the XAL (airlines) as that index had been under suspicion right from the Monday Morning Post and was, by far, the worst performing sector of the week.
Another breakaway for the week was oil, which left gold in the dust as apparently oil and gold traders now analyze the risk factors on totally different planets. Of course we had the Saudi oil plot of the month, so at least there’s some reason for last week’s spike, although last time a big plot was foiled (2/25/06), prices plunged over 5% the next week. That plot was also "uncovered" as crude prices fell from $68 in January ‘06 to mid February, and here we are having trouble getting oil back over $65. Once again the Saudis come to the rescue!
Leaving both the XLE (Energy Spider) and the price of crude in the dust was the Oil Service HOLDRs (NYSEARCA:OIH) as the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLE) stalwarts, but the ETF that really suffered was the IXC, which is more specialized with the integrated majors which are, across the board, producing less oil for more money. This has drawn my attention to the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore & Prod. (NYSEARCA:XOP) which, even though Tesoro (NYSE:TSO) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) are its largest holdings, suddenly turned a little toppy this week. We’ll be watching this one for signs of a breakdown or a breakout above $44 as they are nicely diversified and still represent what I consider to be a relatively undervalued segment (TSO notwithstanding) of the industry.
In addition to shrugging off spiking energy prices and a sagging economy (but as Zman points out, food and energy inflation doesn’t seem to count), the market was able to ignore a few earnings disappointments as well.
But did we pass our test? I think we did, because we had awful hosing data, but didn’t tank the market (in fact we got a huge dip at 10 and recovered nicely).
We decided it WOULD happen on Wednesday morning as The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) and AirTran Holdings, Inc. (AAI) finally gave a lift to our XAL’s. Happy Trading predicted a Nasdaq breakout, but I don’t think any of us were expecting to zoom right through Dow 13,100 as well. We can thank a happy Beige Book for that!
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) kept the party going with an 88% jump in profits on Wednesday night. Thursday we knew were were in for a fun day as Nintendo chipped in with a 77% increase in profits, giving us a nice global balance in consumer tech. Asia continued to give us a nice boost as we wrote a love letter to BIDU on Thursday night. They showed us you can hedge and still make money on a big move.
Speaking of playing games, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) announced on Thursday and after saying earnings would be good, then bad, then good - they did indeed turn out to be good. It was the GDP that was BAD on Friday but the markets STILL didn’t care! So we took a lot off the table, left on our covers just in case, and we will grin and bear (oops, don’t say bear!) it over the weekend where we will get a real test of my Global Market Theory. We’re expecting the shutdown in Asia (holidays) to force more money into U.S. equities.
Can anything go wrong? Absolutely! That’s what’s going to make it so much fun . . .
Have a good weekend,
|AAPL||M||$ 95||P||3/28||4||$5.00||$ 1.00||4/27||$ (4.00)||-80%|
|AAPL||M||$ 95||C||4/23||-20||$3.00||$ 4.25||4/27||$ 1.25||42%|
|AAPL||M||$ 95||C||4/19||10||$2.00||$ 6.75||4/27||$ 4.75||238%|
|AIR||A||$ 35||C||2/1||40||$0.53||$ 0.75||4/24||$ 0.22||42%|
|AKAM||M||$ 50||P||4/25||20||$1.30||$ 2.15||4/25||$ 0.85||65%|
|AMZN||M||$ 45||C||4/24||-40||$2.00||$ 8.50||4/25||$ 6.50||325%|
|AMZN||M||$ 48||C||4/24||50||$0.85||$ 14.25||4/27||$ 13.40||1576%|
|AMZN||M||$ 45||C||4/17||-9||$2.10||$ 8.20||4/25||$ 6.10||290%|
|AMZN||O||$ 45||C||4/17||5||$2.30||$ 20.00||4/27||$ 17.70||770%|
|AXP||M||$ 58||C||3/5||25||$1.25||$ 4.00||4/24||$ 2.75||220%|
|BKS||J||$ 40||C||3/7||30||$1.20||$ 2.40||4/23||$ 1.20||100%|
|BRCM||J||$ 35||C||4/24||50||$1.40||$ 1.85||4/26||$ 0.45||32%|
|BRCM||M||$ 35||C||4/24||-50||$1.30||$ 0.30||4/27||$ (1.00)||77%|
|BRCM||M||$ 33||P||4/26||50||$0.40||$ 0.85||4/27||$ 0.45||113%|
|CCJ||J||$ 38||C||3/5||20||$5.60||$ 11.85||4/23||$ 6.25||112%|
|CME||M||$ 520||P||4/23||10||$4.00||$ 7.00||4/24||$ 3.00||75%|
|CMI||M||$ 100||P||4/27||10||$3.00||$ 5.25||4/27||$ 2.25||75%|
|DIA||M||$ 130||P||4/23||300||$1.55||$ 1.75||4/23||$ 0.20||13%|
|EWJ||M||$ 14||C||4/23||20||$0.60||$ 0.50||4/24||$ (0.10)||-17%|
|GE||M||$ 35||C||4/25||100||$0.55||$ 2.00||4/27||$ 1.45||264%|
|GOOG||J||$ 500||C||4/3||20||$11.40||$ 11.50||4/23||$ 0.10||1%|
|GOOG||J||$ 490||C||3/30||20||$8.00||$ 15.75||4/23||$ 7.75||97%|
|GOOG||J||$ 490||C||2/27||40||$4.60||$ 15.75||4/23||$ 11.15||242%|
|HRB||J||$ 23||C||2/27||24||$1.00||$ 1.65||4/26||$ 0.65||65%|
|IBM||M||$ 95||C||4/18||50||$1.45||$ 1.70||4/23||$ 0.25||17%|
|IBM||M||$ 95||C||4/18||50||$1.20||$ 4.10||4/24||$ 2.90||242%|
|INTC||J||$ 23||C||4/17||50||$0.54||$ 0.90||4/26||$ 0.36||67%|
|INTC||M||$ 20||C||1/22||40||$0.65||$ 2.10||4/24||$ 1.45||223%|
|JWN||J||$ 60||C||4/9||20||$0.95||$ 1.65||4/26||$ 0.70||74%|
|MCD||M||$ 48||C||4/20||20||$1.45||$ 1.70||4/23||$ 0.25||17%|
|MSFT||J||$ 30||C||4/26||100||$0.80||$ 1.60||4/27||$ 0.80||100%|
|MSFT||M||$ 30||C||4/26||200||$0.40||$ 1.00||4/27||$ 0.60||150%|
|MU||M||$ 11||C||4/19||40||$0.50||$ 1.10||4/25||$ 0.60||120%|
|NEM||M||$ 43||C||3/30||20||$1.75||$ 2.00||4/24||$ 0.25||14%|
|PBR||M||$ 100||P||3/29||90||$2.20||$ 1.95||4/24||$ (0.25)||-11%|
|PBR||J||$ 105||P||4/20||10||$5.30||$ 6.60||4/27||$ 1.30||25%|
|PBR||M||$ 105||P||4/20||-10||$3.90||$ 1.85||4/27||$ (2.05)||53%|
|PEIX||S||$ 18||C||4/4||10||$1.50||$ 0.90||4/24||$ (0.60)||-40%|
|QCOM||M||$ 45||C||4/23||-10||$1.95||$ 0.75||4/27||$ (1.20)||62%|
|RIG||A||$ 85||C||4/11||20||$4.25||$ 7.80||4/27||$ 3.55||84%|
|SU||J||$ 80||P||4/24||40||$2.50||$ 2.30||4/26||$ (0.20)||-8%|
|SU||M||$ 80||C||4/26||20||$2.70||$ 3.50||4/26||$ 0.80||30%|
|TGT||M||$ 60||C||4/11||30||$1.72||$ 2.45||4/23||$ 0.73||42%|
|TGT||M||$ 63||C||3/27||30||$0.35||$ 0.50||4/24||$ 0.15||43%|
|TM||M||$ 130||C||4/16||50||$1.25||$ 1.00||4/23||$ (0.25)||-20%|
|TSO||M||$ 120||P||4/26||-232||$ 6.00||$ 4.95||4/26||$ (1.05)||18%|
|TXN||M||$ 33||C||4/20||20||$1.10||$ 2.80||4/24||$ 1.70||155%|
|UNH||M||$ 55||C||4/24||-10||$1.00||$ 0.35||4/26||$ (0.65)||65%|
|WFR||M||$ 65||C||4/24||-10||$4.00||$ 0.50||4/27||$ (3.50)||88%|
|WFR||M||$ 65||C||4/20||-10||$2.40||$ 0.50||4/27||$ (1.90)||79%|
|WM||M||$ 40||C||4/17||20||$1.52||$ 2.85||4/23||$ 1.33||88%|
|XOM||M||$ 75||C||4/23||-50||$4.80||$ 4.50||4/24||$ (0.30)||6%|
|XOM||M||$ 80||C||4/23||50||$1.20||$ 1.40||4/25||$ 0.20||17%|
|XOM||M||$ 85||P||4/23||-150||$5.80||$ 4.60||4/27||$ (1.20)||21%|