Yesterday, Fidel Castro was nowhere to be found during the May Day celebrations. His absence prompted speculation regarding his health and return to power. This speculation caused the Herzfeld Carribean Fund (NASDAQ:CUBA) to soar nearly 12% to 12.56 a share.
This is not the first time speculation involving Fidel's demise gave this fund a boost. It is no secret that this fund is clearly driven by headlines instead of stock performance. This may not be good for those paying up for those shares of the fund.
Especially, since after reviewing the fund's major holdings in its latest semi-annual investor report one does not see any pure plays that would benefit immensely from Castro's death and an immediate lifting of the U.S.-Cuban embargo. Approximately 65% of the fund's holdings are in U.S. companies. These companies could see a boost in business from a lift in the embargo, but hardly enough to warrant a huge run up in company shares.
This fund may be alright to trade simply on the news, hype and momentum that the changing of the guard in Cuba might bring. However, to maintain that this fund will see large gains over the long term because of this seems doubtful. I think one would be better off buying an index fund. To see the semi-annual investor file click here.