Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: "Get ready for $4/gallon gasoline." You have probably heard some form of the prior phrase in the past couple of weeks as the summer months approach and gas prices recently topped $3/gallon. But if everyone is thinking it, will it really happen?
In the chart below, we provide the seasonal trends in the price of oil, highlighting the summer months of June, July and August. Going back to 1987, we provide average one-year price charts of oil over the past five years, ten years and our entire date range. As shown, oil has typically risen significantly over the summer months, with the average percent change over the last five years showing the largest gains of the time frames we examined.
As the price of oil has steadily risen from its January lows of $50 back up to $64, have investors been pre-empting the trends of the past in hopes of the typical summer gains? If so, those gains might not be in the cards.