Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: So far this month, the Sell in May and Go Away adage has not held up too well. After the first two trading days of the month, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, which, over the last 79 years, is the 20th occurrence of a one percent gain to start May.
However, before we Buy in May, prior strong starts to the month have had little or no bearing on the market's direction through Labor Day (May, June, July, and August). As the table below details, the average performance from the third trading day of May through August 30th is minus 0.6%. Investors should not interpret this to mean that the next three months will be placid though. Taking an average of the absolute change during each period yields a result of 7.7%, indicating the Dow could see some big swings this Summer.