Seeking Alpha
Newsletter provider, ETF investing, macro
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

Super Bowl Indicator: A "Giant" Bull Market? (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM)By John Nyaradi

Does a 21-17 NY Giants victory indicate a “Giant” Bull Market for 2012?

Yesterday’s match-up was one of the best Super Bowl games I have ever watched, and I must say from an ETF investor’s perspective, I am pleased that the Giants won. One may ask, however, why a NY Giant’s win would give me hope about financial markets this year?

On Saturday, we wrote about the Super Bowl indicator, the age old “reliable” indicator of market performance based on what team wins the Super Bowl each year. According to the Super Bowl Indicator, if any team that is from the old AFL, now known as the AFC, wins the big game, markets are predicted to enter a bear market that year; likewise if any team from the old NFL or current NFC wins (say Giants!), markets are supposed to enter a bull market for that year.

Both the New England Patriots and the New York Giants fought hard for victory last night, however when the Giants won over the Patriots by four points with a 21-17 victory, I knew right away the bulls might have a “giant” shot for victory this year.

The Super Bowl indicator has had an 80% accuracy rate since the Super Bowl’s inception over 46 years ago, however keep in mind that the Giant’s last victory in 2008 coincided with the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and a very large BEAR market, so I am always skeptical about an indicator which touts such a high accuracy rate.

I will say, however, that life is always easier and better when major indexes such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ composite, and the Russell 2000 Index are in the green. I will also say that life is even better for an ETF investor when major index ETFs including the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY), the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCE: DIA), the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), and the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSEARCA: IWM) finish in up the green as well.

Bottom Line: With the Giants victory last night, and an 80% “accurate” Super Bowl Indicator, one can’t help but feel a tad hopeful for a Bull market this year. Does a 21-17 NY Giants victory indicate a “Giant” Bull Market for 2012? Let’s wait and see!

Disclaimer:

Wall Street Sector Selector

trades a wide variety of ETFs and positions can change at any time.

Source: Super Bowl Indicator: A 'Giant' Bull Market?