When Global Liquidity Peters Out

by: Roger Nusbaum

roger nusbaumRoger Nusbaum submits: The U.S. stock market feels a little tired to me, yet it keeps finding a way to keep going up. I mentioned in an interview last week that the momentum might last a few more weeks, but I am less confident of that based on the last three trading days.

Global liquidity has been a huge catalyst for all markets all year, and guessing when that peters out will be very difficult. I think it is very important to really think this through now while everything is still okey dokey. I have been saying that I believe the market event of late February was about the threat of the liquidity spigot being turned off. That sort of threat coming again could be a trigger point for a correction that lasts more than two weeks.

Tom Lydon has a post up that delves into his process a bit that is a good read. He does things very differently than me, so it was interesting read -- a little about what seems like a momentum strategy. There is a wide range of approaches about how to manage a portfolio, and while I can't relate to his approach, I am sure he cannot relate to mine either. One take away is Tom's pounding the table on sell discipline. I don't think he is saying "mine is the best" -- I take it more as pick an exit strategy and stick to it. Needless to say this is very important.