Dendreon: The Next Genentech/Amgen?

I am not going to talk about current trading in Dendreon (DNDN). Rather, I will offer some past and future perspective.

A little personal background: I first came across this little unknown biotech company on the Elan Yahoo message board (thanks a million to whoever that was) back in 2004. What a find --- the drug could be cancer treatment paradigm shifting and an investment in it could be lifestyle changing. I jumped in with both feet and immediately saw a sizable paper profit.

But that did not stay long as shorts were piling up, the pps was tanking and my broker account balance sinking. I was forced to sell my initial acquisition for a large loss. But I was never away from it. In and out, out and in and making small to mid-sized losses each time. Yikes.

Then came November 2006; after the Provenge BLA was submitted and the low-ball secondary offering was done, I went to my bank maxing out my line of credit, converting the whole sum from Canadian dollars to the greenback and wired that to TDWaterhouse. Next morning, I started buying 2000 shares, added on the way up and added on the way down and used up my margin room along the way. It took me a total of 10 buys to use up all I could muster for this unloved and unwanted stock. The capping, red-candling day in and day out did not shake my belief and my confidence. I constantly reminded myself why I got into this stock. regardless of the pps. "Keep the faith and stay the course" became a morning ritual.

I also recommended the stock to a number of friends, sharing with them my DD. Some of them got in. Others sat on the fence. I was able to convince my girlfriend to acquire 4000 shares in Februry 2007. However incredible it may sound, I watched pre-market trading for 10 minutes on March 30, 2007 and that was all the trading I watched that day.

The rest is history, as they say. "Where are we going from here and what should I do with my DNDN shares?", I constantly ask myself. We are going higher and I added shares and LEAPs --- my answers! Some concerned friends advised me to take some profits off the table. I thanked them but refused to give the friendly advice any consideration because I would not sell my shares, which I view as 70-80% undervalued a year out.

Now, let me turn to a little future perspective. I won't repeat what Provenge does and may do as the FDA AC has voted: 17-0 for safety and 13-4 for efficacy on March 29, 2007, and most believers all knew too well a lot earlier. Provenge is a godsend for men. I've heard that all men will develop PC if we live long enough. But the puck doesn't stop there. Once being marketed, Provenge will bring in much needed cash for Dendreon to launch clinical trials for Nuevenge and other pipeline drugs. To top that off, the cassette delivery technology can be applied to a wide spectrum of treatments.

I see a biotech powerhouse in the making, the next Genentech (DNA)/Amgen (AMGN) emerging. But Rome isn't built in one day. There will be bumps and potholes along the ride. I encourage all believers (fellow longs) to exercise patience, extreme patience, at times.

To conclude, my sincere best wishes to cancer patients and families.

Disclosure: Author is long DNDN.

Comments

[Lockstep In...:]

This is unverifyable, sensational, and just a hype story. I wish this guy luck and wonder how much interest he is paying on his line of credit.

2007 May 04 12:52 PM

[pingish:]

This story is pretty much garbage. Anyone who understands biotech understands that there are few proven paths from biotechnology research outfit to biotech giant. DNDN has taken the first step of a long marathon on which <b>many</b>... have embarked and five have finished. This story would be more credible if the journalist outlines the prescription for growing into a biotech giant and show how DNDN has moved it's chess pieces forward. Until then, this is just pre-FDA-decision babble.

2007 May 05 01:36 AM

[Lockstep In...:]

"Some concerned friends advised me to take some profits off the table. I thanked them but refused to give the friendly advice any consideration because I would not sell my shares, which I view as 70-80% undervalued a year out."

Wow. More than a week later and I still want to come back and tell this guy he sucks. Just go to Vegas and put your money on black instead? SeekingAlpha leaders, please don't let this idiot post anymore. It degrades the site.

2007 May 15 05:20 PM