Whole Foods A Long And Short Favorite Coming Off Earnings-Driven After-Hours Trade

| About: Whole Foods (WFM)

Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ:WFM) is scheduled to report Q1 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting a profit of $0.60 per share on revenue of $3.38 billion.

WFM has developed a steady pattern of widening price moves between the sessions following its after-hours earnings-related events, extending its move after 21 of its past 30 earnings-related events.

Looking deeper into the performance data, WFM has seen an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 12 of the 30 quarters we've tracked, and in nine of those events it has seen its evening downside widen in the following day's regular session (75% of the time).

On the plus-side, WFM has recorded an after-hours earnings-driven gain in 18 of the 30 quarters we've tracked. It has seen its gain move higher the following day in 12 of those quarters (66% of the time).

  • On Nov. 2, 2011, WFM declined 5.4% in evening trade after beating Q4 EPS estimates, meeting on revenue, and posting in-line guidance. The stock cut its downside the next day, ending the Nov. 3 regular session off 2%.
  • On July 27, 2011, WFM gained 3.7% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations. The stock cut its upside slightly the next day, ending the July 28 regular session up 2.6%.
  • On May 4, 2011, WFM advanced 5.5% in night trade after topping Q2 estimates and setting its FY 2011 guidance mostly in line with expectations. The stock lost most of its upside the following day, closing the May 5 regular session up 0.4%.
  • On Feb. 9, 2011, WFM beat Q1 estimates and raised its guidance. The stock leaped 7.9% in after-hours trade. It added to its upside the next day, closing the Feb. 10 regular session up 11.7%.
  • On Nov. 3, 2010, WFM leaped 8.8% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 estimates and setting a strong outlook for its 2011 guidance. The stock was a bullish upside mover the following day, closing the Nov. 4 regular session up 15.1%.
  • On Aug. 3, 2010, WFM declined 5.6% in after-hours trade after beating revenue expectations and setting its guidance in-line to higher than estimates. It headed deeper south the next day, closing the Aug. 4 regular session down 8.4%.
  • On May 12, 2010, WFM advanced 5.2% In after-hours trade after beating Q1 expectations and raising its outlook. The stock firmed higher the following day, closing the May 13 regular session up 5.6%.
  • On Feb. 16, 2010, the stock gained 7.4% after a Q1 beat and improved 2010 projections. Shares jumped 12.5% the next day.
  • On Nov. 4, 2009, WFM slumped 8.4% in after-hours trade after reporting in-line results but also guiding for full year earnings below expectations. The stock headed deeper south the following day, ending the Nov. 5 regular session down 15.4%.
  • On Aug. 4, 2009, the stock advanced 12.8% after a Q3 beat. The gain widened to 15.6% the following day.
  • On May 13, 2009, WFM gained 6.2% in after-hours action after topping Q2 expectations. The stock lost a good portion of its gain the next day, ending up 2.7% in the May 14 regular session.
  • On Feb. 18, 2009, WFM advanced 7.3% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 expectations. The stock soared higher the following day, closing the Feb. 19 regular session up 37.2%.
  • On Nov. 5, 2008, the stock jumped 16.4% after reporting in line with sales and beating with EPS. The gain was dramatically cut the next day, shares ended up 1.6%.
  • On Aug. 5, 2008, the stock fell 17.5% after a Q3 miss. The loss was narrowed slightly, to 12.5% the next day.
  • On May 13, 2008, the stock fell 7.9% after WFM missed with Q1 profit. The loss swelled to 13.9% the next day.
  • On Feb. 19, 2008, WFM edged down 0.1% in after-hours trade after beating on Q1 sales, meeting on earnings, and reaffirming guidance. The stock added to its downside on Feb. 20, ending the regular session down 1.7%.
  • On Nov. 20, 2007, WFM gained 1.3% in evening trade after beating Q4 expectations and setting guidance in line to above the Street. The stock saw its upside evaporate the next day as WFMI ended the Nov. 21 regular session down 1.9%.
  • On July 31, 2007, the stock jumped 8.6% in the evening hours after WFM reported in line with revenue and tops with EPS. The gain was pared slightly, to 6.7%, the next day.
  • On May 9, 2007, the stock fell 8.3% after reporting Q2 results shy of estimates. The stock fell 10.1% the next day.
  • On Feb. 21, 2007, the stock was up 5.1% in the evening hours after missing with sales but topping with EPS. The gain fattened to 14% the next day.
  • On November 2, 2006, WFM skidded 14.4% in night trade on in-line Q4 results. Shares sank further the next day, closing the regular session down a steep 23%.
  • On July 31, 2006, WFM tumbled 7.2% in after-hours trade after the company missed Q3 sales expectations and guided its revenue view in line to lower than estimates. It slid further in the Aug. 1 regular session, losing 11.7%.
  • On May 3, 2006, shares gained 4.8% after the company reported ahead by a penny with its latest earnings and in line with sales. The gain swelled to 13.3% the next day.
  • On Feb. 8, 2006, WFM shares were down 3.2% in night trade after the latest earnings missed the Street by a penny and guidance was untouched. The loss fattened to 9.4% the next day.
  • On November 9, 2005, WFM dropped 4.0% in evening trade after reporting a decline in Q4 earnings from a year ago. Sales were roughly in line with estimates and above the year ago level. WFM also raised its 2006 sales guidance that night. However, shares still stayed weak the next day, ending the regular session down 4.8%.
  • On July 28, 2005, WFM gained 11.1% in night trade on better-than-expected Q3 earnings. The shares widened their gains slightly, ending the next day's regular hours trading up 11.6%.
  • On May 4, 2005, WFM jumped 5% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 revenue and topping the First Call consensus estimate by 3 cents. It widened its price move in the May 5 regular session, surging 7.5%.
  • On Feb. 9, 2005, WFM leapt 5.2% after reporting Q1 EPS that beat the Street target by 5 cents. Sales were also higher than expected. The stock showed even more strength in the Feb. 10 regular session, surging 6.8%.
  • On Nov. 10, 2004, the stock added 1.3% after topping Q4 revenue estimates and matching the EPS target. It surged 9.7% in the Nov. 11 regular session.
  • On July 28, WFM plunged 5.3% after besting Q3 revenue targets but coming in a penny shy on EPS. It narrowed its downside marginally in the July 29 regular session, closing down 5.1%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.