Whether Up Or Down In After-Hours Trade, Atmel Favors Longs Off Earnings-Driven Moves

Feb. 8.12 | About: Atmel Corporation (ATML)

Atmel (NASDAQ:ATML) is due out with Q4 results after the bell tonight, and Wall Street expects earnings at $0.08 per share on revenue of $388 million, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

ATML has a history that favors the long side in the wake of the company's earnings reports, consistently adding to earnings-driven even gains in next-day regular session trade, as well as reversing after-hours declines the following day.

The stock's long-term behavior is favoring reversing its share move between the extended hours and regular trading, with 16 narrowing moves, 12 wider trades between the sessions, one instance where no trade data was recorded from the quarterly report, and another instance of flat evening trade followed by a next-day gain.

Looking deeper into the performance data, ATML has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 17 of the quarters tracked in our database. In 12 of those events, or 71% of the time, the stock reversed direction in the following day's regular session. On the upside, ATML has advanced in evening trade 11 quarters, widening the gain in seven of those events in next-day action, or 64% of the time.

  • On Nov. 1, 2011, ATML declined 6.7% in after-hours trade after beating on earnings and coming in shy on Q3 revenue. Traders cut the bulk of those declines in the following day's regular session, with the stock ending down a modest 1%.
  • On Aug. 3, 2011, ATML declined 3.5% in night trade despite beating Q2 estimates. The stock tumbled further in the red the next day, ending the Aug. 4 regular session down 16.1%.
  • On May 4, 2011, ATML slumped 6.4% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 estimates and approving a new $300 million stock buyback program. The stock cut its downside the following day, ending the May 5 regular session off 2.1%.
  • On Feb. 8, 2011, the stock rose 4% in evening hours after earnings blew past Street expectations. Shares rose a robust 9.8% the next day.
  • On Nov. 4, 2010, ATML gained 3.9% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 earnings expectations. The stock soared even higher the following day, closing the Nov. 5 regular session up 15.1%.
  • On Aug. 4, 2010, ATML advanced 7.9% in evening trade after beating Q2 estimates and approving a stock buyback plan. The stock soared even higher the following day, closing the Aug. 5 regular session up 18.7%.
  • On May 4, 2010, ATML ended the after-hours flat after beating Q1 expectations. The stock turned higher in the following day's regular session, ending up 7.4%.
  • On Feb. 8, 2010, the stock gained 1.4% during evening trading after a Q4 beat. Shares fell 9.8% the next day.
  • On Nov. 5, 2009, ATML advanced 2.3% in evening trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock lost its upside the following day, ending the Nov. 6 regular session down 0.1%.
  • On Aug. 4, 2009, ATML slumped 6.5% in pre-market trade despite topping quarterly expectations. The stock was hit for a deeper decline in the following regular session, ending down 7.6%.
  • On May 5, 2009, ATML declined 3.4% in after-hours trade after missing revenue expectations. The stock was punched deeper south the next day, closing the May 6 regular session down 8.8%.
  • On Feb. 4, 2009, ATML declined 3.7% in after-hours trade after beating earnings estimates but missing on revenue. The stock turned higher the following day, closing the Feb. 5 regular session with a 7.1% gain.
  • On Oct. 29, 2008, the stock slipped 0.8% in evening extended hours after reporting in line to ahead of the Street with Q3 results but offering mixed guidance. Shares rebounded to post a 13.3% gain the next day.
  • On July 30, 2008, ATML advanced 5.9% in evening trade after reporting a quarterly loss on higher revenue. The gain was cut back the next day as ATML ended the July 31 regular session with a 3.8% advance.
  • On April 30, 2008, the stock fell 1.3% during the extended-hours session despite a Q1 beat. Shares did rally 11% the next day.
  • On Feb. 6, 2008, the stock fell 3.1% during evening trading despite issuing results that beat the year-ago period. Shares rebounded to gain 5% the next day.
  • On Oct. 30, 2007, ATML declined 2.4% in evening action after meeting Q3 earnings estimates and topping on sales. It cut back that decline the next day, ending the Oct. 31 regular session down 0.6%.
  • On Aug. 1, 2007, ATML slipped 1.9% in after hours when the company topped Q2 sales estimates but missed on EPS. Shares eased further the following day to end the regular session down 2.2%.
  • On May 1, 2007, ATML edged up 2.4% in evening hours when the company beat Q1 sales expectations. Shares rose further the following day to close the regular session up 4.7%.
  • On Feb. 1, 2007, ATML dipped 1.1% in night trade after just missing Q4 sales estimates However, shares recovered the next day to end the regular session up 0.7%.
  • On Nov. 2, 2006, ATML shed 3.2% in after-hours trade after missing on Q3 revenue and guiding for a weaker Q4. Despite the disappointing financials, the stock turned around the following day and closed the Nov. 3 regular session up 3.6%,
  • No trading data was recorded for quarterly data issued in July 2006.
  • On April 25, 2006, the stock finished the evening session just positive, up 0.1% after topping the Street's sales estimate for Q1 and guiding for sequentially higher sales. Shares ended just in the red the next day.
  • On January 31, 2006, ATML rose 5% in night trade after it returned to profitability in Q4, including items. Sales just missed analysts' expectations. The shares, though, added to those gains the next day, ending the regular session up 11.1%.
  • On October 25, 2005, ATML gained 4.8% in after hours on improved Q3 results from a year ago. The next day, ATML widened those gains and ended the regular session up 7.1%.
  • On July 26, 2005, ATML slid 8.7% on Q2 results that came in below expectations. The shares widened their losses the next day, closing down 16.1% in regular-hours trade.
  • On April 26, 2005, ATML dropped 1% after hours after reporting a wider-than-expected loss but higher-than-expected revenue. The stock turned around in a big way in the April 27 regular session, soaring 23.6%.
  • On Feb. 1, 2005, ATML edged down 0.9% after hours after missing the Street target on both sales and EPS. It nevertheless reversed direction in the Feb. 2 regular session, gaining 7.2%.
  • On Oct. 26, 2004, ATML rose 3.3% in after-hours trading after reporting higher year-over-year Q3 revenue and a narrower loss. It did, however, miss the Street target on both counts. ATML gained even more in the Oct. 27 regular session, closing up 10.3%.
  • On July 21, 2004, ATML fell 5.5% after Q2 revenue fell short of expectations and EPS missed the Street target by 1 cent. The stock narrowed its loss in the July 22 regular session, declining only 3.3%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.