2008 All Over Again?

Includes: AAPL, DIA, IBM, QQQ, SPY
by: Karl Denninger

The cheering is all over the media this morning, especially CNBC.

The charts? They look stellar, especially the Nasdaq.

Straight up and accelerating.

But beware. The internals belie the truth -- this is a rally that is happening on increasingly-narrow participation. In this case, all Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), all the time.

But Apple will fail. They always do when they take these positions of leadership. It is simply a matter of when, not if. The current "golden boy" will make a mistake, and when it does that monstrous percentage will cut on the downside just as it boosts on the upside.

It is not often that one gets this sort of rotational warning in such a clear form, but you're getting it now. The same thing is true in the Dow, with IBM (NYSE:IBM) being the power mover there.

Beware folks. Be very, very careful.

There's a decent shot that this move has more legs in it, just as it did in late 2007 and before that, in late 1999 and early 2000.

But there's a very high correlation between these sorts of rotational moves, which have shown up before both major tops in the last 20 years, and that event down the road.

This is not a crash call and it is certainly is not a call to "short everything" today. But it is a caution that when coupled with the fiscal situation here, in Europe and in Japan, that the "strong market" meme that has taken over is in fact, on the internals, becoming too extended and is now narrowing down, which makes it increasingly dangerous to continue to dance.