I absolutely love being right. There is absolutely nothing better than to be ahead of the curve when it comes to calling a big pop with a stock. (Yes, I know I was not alone, but let me feel really cool right now.)
When I was day trading, I was constantly patting myself on the back unless I was hiding under the desk not wanting to look at the next tick on a huge drop I missed with my margin bucks hanging out all over the place. I can no longer handle THAT kind of pressure and those days are thankfully behind me.
However I am actually quite proud of myself these days with a few of my recent "swing" trade picks. The one that stands out is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) of course. I mean really folks, give the guy a small standing ovation will ya?
I wrote two (not one) articles on AAPL for Seeking Alpha. The first one, (check this out) basically called for a real Apple TV that was "rumored" to be on the horizon, and blasted everyone who said that AAPL had a "bad" quarter.
At the time (10/26/2011) the stock was selling for $397/share, Steve Jobs had recently passed away, and "For Whom The Bell Tolls" was playing in the background.
Seriously, folks were writing them off. Hogwash, Apple was not even getting out of the gate is seems.
I included links to the rumors that an Apple TV was already in the works, and how much it would ring up in Apple's cash register. Please read that article for all the links.
Read the comments also. I was just starting out with Seeking Alpha, and people did not know me, so most were kind enough in the comments, but very skeptical.
OK, it was one of my first "proms". I forgave myself but stood by my convictions. (I bought leaps, which for me was risky)
The next article was written on 12/20/2011 (here it is) when the share price was $389/share. Even lower than before, but Apple came out with an astounding forecast on 10/18/2011 which I defended once again. (Read this)
My leaps were looking blah, but I was so sure that Apple was going to blow numbers away and would have an amazing 2012 and beyond that I called for a $600/share price within 12-24 months or sooner.
I did not care what the price point of an Apple TV would be, nor was I batting an eyelash that people were yelling that Apple's best days had passed. Apple had, and has, all the toys and tools even without the dang TV. However, I am telling you folks right here and now, that we will see an amazing evolution of television very soon. Yes it's my opinion of course, but willyou doubt Apple these days?
Just look what happened Thursday:
The stock jumped another 3.5%, over $16 bucks a share, in a basically flat market. Analysts increased the price target for 2012 (read here), they announced the iPad 3 (read this), and finally wall street was catching up to me. Did I mention that they have not come out with the TV yet either?
What else can I say? I already own the leaps, I will not be selling them soon, and I am raising my own personal price target for AAPL to $700/share by the end of this year.
I heard that if the metrics used to place a value on Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) were to be used for Apple, its share price would be over $1600/share.
My estimate is less than half that price. Do ya think I am being too conservative?
Disclaimer: Please remember to do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or stocks, and is the opinion of the author.
Disclosure: I am long AAPL.
Additional disclosure: I own leaps, not shares.